Assembly Elections 2019: Key takeaways from Maharashtra, Haryana exit polls

On October 21, all eyes were on exit polls for the Maharashtra and Haryana Assembly elections after voting in both states concluded.

All major survey agencies and news organisations, in the exit polls, predicted a massive victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies in both states.

According to the News18-IPSOS exit poll, in Maharashtra, BJP is expected to win 141 seats – falling short of the majority mark of 145. Its traditional ally, Shiv Sena, is forecasted to win 102 seats in the state. BJP-Shiv Sena’s ‘Maha-Yuti’ is expected to win a total of 243 of the state’s 288 seats.

The Congress and Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) are predicted to win 17 and 22 seats, respectively. Other parties within Congress-NCP’s ‘Maha-Aghadi’ are expected to win a couple of seats.

The picture looks grim for the Opposition in Haryana too. The News18-IPSOS exit poll has predicted that BJP will win 75 of the 90 seats in the state.

Congress, being led by former chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, is predicted to win just 10 seats.

Dushyant Chautala’s Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) would clinch its first couple of Legislative Assembly seats, ever. However, the party led by Dushyant’s grandfather Om Prakash Chautala – the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) – is expected to face a complete rout. INLD is predicted to win no seat this time.

Here are the key takeaways from the exit poll results:

Shiv Sena to gain significantly?

The News18-IPSOS exit poll suggests that Shiv Sena would 102 seats. If the numbers hold true on October 24, it would be the first time that the Sena has crossed the 100-seat mark. It assumes significance as its partner, the BJP, is being widely seen as the ‘Big Brother’ in the alliance now.

The tally would could act as a bargaining chip, within the alliance, for the Shiv Sena going forward.

In 2014, Sena had won 63 seats when it was a four-cornered contest. It remains to be seen from which regions the Uddhav Thackeray-led party’s gains will come from.

However, it must be noted that other exit polls have predicted Sena to win seats significantly less than 100.

BJP achieving ‘Mission 75’ in Haryana

The BJP had publically talked about ‘Mission 75’. Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar-led state unit of the BJP had aimed to win at least 75 seats in the 90-member Assembly. In 2014, the party had won 47 seats, up from just four in 2009.

BJP’s campaign around Article 370 seemingly worked

In an interview with Network18’s Group Editor-in-Chief Rahul Joshi recently, BJP National President Amit Shah said that "Article 370 has made a huge impact in the state that sends one the highest number of jawans to the armed forces."

Shah also said that Centre’s decision to abrogate Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) had given a big boost to the party’s position in Haryana.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Shah, CM Khattar and BJP Working President JP Nadda had extensively campaigned in Haryana highlighting Centre’s decision to abrogate of Article 370.

INLD out, JJP taking over?

The INLD, which had ruled Haryana for years, by drawing its support from the politically influential Jat community, seemed to slide out of the picture.

Most exit poll predictions painted a grim picture for INLD. The party is predicted to win 0-1 seat.

The JJP, which was formed by Dushyant Chautala, after breaking away from INLD, has been predicted to win two seats according to the News18-IPSOS exit polls. Some of the other exit polls predict JJP to win 5-7 seats.

Psephologists have been keen on knowing if JJP will be able to take over the void being left by INLD. That question could be answered on October 24.

Congress slides further, Hooda faces uncertain political future

It has been predicted that Congress’ tally in both states will fall further as compared to 2014. The News18-IPSOS exit poll has predicted that Congress would win 17 seats in Maharashtra and former chief ministers Prithviraj Chavan and Ashok Chavan could themselves lose.

The poll predicts Congress to win 10 seats in Haryana.

Reacting to exit poll predictions in general, former chief minister Hooda said "I do not believe in exit polls, I believe in the exact poll results.”

"According to the feedback I have got and on the basis of my tours across the state ahead of polling, I can say that on October 24, when the results are declared, the Congress will get a majority and form the government," Hooda asserted.