El Nino may trigger a drought-like situation in India, warns DS Pai

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India is staring at a drought-like situation this year because of the El Nino weather phenomenon, which is likely to reduce monsoon rainfall to below 90 percent of the long-period average, Institute of Climate Change Studies Director DS Pai has warned.

The impact of high temperatures associated with El Nino may be felt for a year, Pai said at a Moneycontrol panel discussion.

“El Nino is likely this year after 3 years of La Nina. There were cases of rainfall below 100. When the monsoon was below 90, the situation was like drought, earlier in 1952, 1965 and 1972. We are facing the same situation,” Pai said.

La Nina is the opposite effect of El Nino, a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the Pacific Ocean, and is associated with rainfall deficit and drought in India and its neighbourhood. It spells bad news for India, where half the population depends on agriculture for a livelihood

India has to be watchful as the impact of global warming is also felt on the monsoon.

“With the likely El Nino impact, there may be a long dry period. If El Nino peaks in winter and continues in the spring season of 2024, next year can be the warmest. The record temperature may break in 2024 if El Nino continues,” Pai said.

Increasing temperature

Temperatures are rising across the country and predictions are for an increase above normal.

“High temperatures are likely to continue for some more days. We are expecting by May it will become neutral. El Nino forms around the Pacific during spring and its intensity becomes strong in winter. In the beginning, El Nino predictions are difficult. We have to wait for 1–2 months to predict the El Nino situation and its impact on the weather pattern. Since 1950, nine monsoons were rainfall-deficient due to El Nino,” he said.

At present, India is experiencing below-normal rainfall. It is possible that that monsoon rainfall can be below 100 percent, but other factors will come into play. La Nina is still continuing, and it will take time for the phenomenon to establish itself. El Nino can affect rainfall in September, the last part of the monsoon. It is crucial how the monsoon will perform at the start, Pai said.

BL Meena, a former advisor to the agriculture ministry, said that a poor monsoon due to El Nino will impact farm production.

“Sowing starts from June. It depends on the frequency and volume of rain. If the frequency is right, then moisture will develop in the soil. But if it’s a dry spell, it will be very long,” Meena told Moneycontrol.

Depinder Sharma, an agricultural expert, said that although things are fine now, Punjab farmers are worried about the rising temperatures.

“The problem may be worse than last year. Last year. 3MT wheat was lost due to high temperature. One degree rise in temperature can hit 6MT production of wheat. We need to prepare for any eventuality. By April, we will have a better picture. Climate aberrations can take place, we need to be watchful of the food security situation,” Sharma said.