IMD’s below-normal rainfall forecast for August not a cause of worry for kharif sowing: Crisil’s Pushan Sharma

The IMD has predicted below-normal rainfall for the country in August and normal rainfall in the August-September period.

The rainfall forecast by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for August should not be a big cause of worry for the kharif sowing season, Pushan Sharma, Director, Crisil has said.

The IMD has predicted below-normal rainfall for the country in August and normal rainfall in the August-September period.

The predictions have come in view of the excess rainfall the country saw in July.

“The situation is not very concerning for overall kharif sowing as July saw above-normal rainfall, thereby ensuring good soil moisture. The overall crop production is, in fact, expected to see a rise,” he said speaking at a Moneycontrol panel on decoding IMD predictions.

Pulses a concern

However, specific crops such as pulses could be of concern, he added.

“Maharashtra specifically saw very less rainfall in June with showers only rising by July. The crop area is already low with a decline in sowing by 16 percent,” he said.

The fall in the sowing area of pulses has been of concern this year. Arhar, or tur, has witnessed the sharpest decline of 18.4 percent in sowing area among pulses. Urad and moong, too, recorded a fall, the latest data released by the Ministry of Agriculture has shown.

Prices for tur, which has seen a drop in sowing, are already up 7 percent within a month and over 32 percent on-year.

However, paddy sowing has stabilised. The sown area is up 1.71 percent year on year, as crucial monsoon rains revived in July and helped farmers accelerate sowing.

Sharma, however, has cautioned that if IMD predictions are not met and the country sees a sharper fall in rainfall, crop sowing may be hurt.

“If dry weather persists for long, sown crops can see a hit as dry weather will lead to damage to plants, which will be in their flowering stage,” he said.

Cotton, on the other hand, can face pink virus infestation due to dry weather.

“The cotton crop has been dealing with it in the past few years and a dry spell will make it more likely for the crop to be attacked this year too,” Sharma said.

You can see the full panel discussion here