ICICI Securities research report on Havells India
We remain positive on Havells although the near-term outlook is likely to be soft due to weak demand for air conditioners and potential impact on earnings due to change in BEE norms in Jan’26 in fans and air conditioners. We note: (1) RAC trade inventory has materially reduced post the festive season but still remains elevated YoY. (2) Secondary sales in RAC and fans may remain weak in Q3FY26. However, channel stocking can happen on the back of pricing arbitrage due to new BEE norms in last week of Dec’26. (3) Impending price hikes could offset the GST benefits. Price hike is likely to be in mid-high single digits in our view considering commodity inflation and change in BEE norms. (4) It consciously tapered discounts/freebies in RAC to protect margins.
Outlook
We model Havells India to report revenue/PAT CAGRs of 11.0%/15.7% over FY25–28E, with strong FCF generation. Our DCF-based revised TP stands at INR 1,725 (earlier INR 1,775); implied P/E works out to 46x FY28E EPS.
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