Anand Rathi's research report on Coal India
With dispatches of ~862m tonnes expected in FY26 and ~900m tonnes in FY27, Coal India offers healthy volume assurance, driven by mounting demand by the power sector. The focus on ramping up of FSA and e-auction volumes, along with capex would drive performance. As e-auction’s share in total dispatches improved in Q3, we expect 81m/99m/114m tonnes of sales via auction-determined prices in FY25/26/27 (~10%/12%/13% of volumes). In line with the recent improvement in e-auction premium and reduction in employee cost, we raise our FY25e adjusted EBITDA by 4.8% and subsequently, our FY26e/27e adjusted EBITDA by 1.5% each.
Outlook
We roll forward our estimate and retain our Buy rating, with a 12-mth TP of Rs470, 5x FY27e EV/EBITDA (earlier Rs545, 6x FY26e EV/EBITDA).
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