Accumulate J Kumar Infraprojects; target of Rs 133: Dolat Capital

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26 Aug, 2025 12:21

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JKIL reported revenue broadly in line however, EBITDA margins and PAT above estimates. JKIL posted 57.3%/ 74.6% YoY de-growth in revenue/ EBITDA to Rs2.9 bn/ Rs283 mn in Q1FY21. JKIL reported loss of Rs208 mn vs. profit of Rs409 mn (Q1FY20). We reduce our revenue estimates by 11.8% and increase our EBITDA margins by 278 bps to 12.1% for FY21E factoring Q1FY21 results. Accordingly, we increase our PAT estimates by 125.0% for FY21E. We broadly maintain our FY22E estimates. JKIL's muted revenue growth (4.9% CAGR over FY20-22E) and EBITDA margin of 12.1%/ 14.0% in FY21E/ FY22E will lead to muted CAGR of -4.5% in its bottom line over FY20-22E. We, therefore, expect the RoCE and RoE to dip to 9.9%/ 8.6% in FY22E from 11.4%/ 10.5% in FY20.

Though the stock has increased ~22% since our Q4FY20 result update note on 29 Jun'20, we believe confidence on management still remains an overhang on the stock. Thus, we maintain Accumulate with a revised TP of Rs133 (6x FY22E EPS).

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