Globoil India 2013 special report: Commodities Control

Commoditiescontrol.com special report on Globoil India 2013:

Forecast by Dorab Mistry, Director ‐ Godrej International Ltd.

PRICE OUTLOOK:

• BMD CPO Futures Unlikely To Trade Below 2,200 Ringgits In Next Few Weeks
• BMD CPO Futures To Move In 2,200‐2,400 Ringgits Range
• Soyoil Prices Unlikely To Fall Significantly Even If Palm Oil Drops
• Sunflower Oil Likely To Trade At discount To Soyoil Until June 2014
• Rapeseed Oil To Remain At Premium To Soyoil, But Premium To Narrow Considerably
• CPO Futures Could Fall To 2,000 Ringgits In January 2014. The Decline Will Depend On Good Weather In South America, Prospect Of Big Soya Crops In Brazil And Argentina and If Brent Crude Falls Below $100/bbl

DEMAND‐SUPPLY:

• World Output Growth To Outstrip World Demand Growth In 2013‐14
• Bull Market In Veg Oil Prices Unlikely In 2013‐14 In Absence Of Adverse Weather
• Malaysia 2013 Palm Oil Output Likely 19.2 Mln Tonne
• Indonesia 2013 Palm Oil Output Likely 29.5 Mln Tonne
• World 2013‐14 (Oct‐Sep) Palm Oil Output Likely Up By 3.5 Mln Tonne From Last Year
• Malaysia, Indonesia Palm Oil Stocks To Rise From September For Next Several Months
• Palm Products This Year To face More Competition From Soft Oils Like Sunflower, Soya Expect Significant Uplift In Indonesian Production From 2017 Onwards
• Worldwide, Production Of Groundnut Oil, Cotton Seed Oil Will Be More Or Less Unchanged
• Production of Palm Kernel Oil To Reach New Highs In 2013‐14

India 2013‐14 Veg Oil Imports Likely At 11 Mln Tonne: Mistry

India's vegetable oils import are expected to rise to 11 million tonne in 2013‐14 from 10.6 million tonne estimated this year, said Dorab Mistry, director of Godrej International Ltd.

For 2013‐14, production of vegetable oils in the country is likely to be higher by at least 500,000 tonnes, he said. These estimates are very preliminary because the rabi crop is yet to be planted, Mistry noted.

Mistry stated that the consumption growth in India is decelerating for the July to November period due to current economic slowdown. However, the consumption growth should pick in the run up to elections and in the inevitable post‐election euphoria in 2014.

He forecast consumption growth to rise by about 800,000 tonnes next year.

"We have the added uncertainty of the currency but I remain optimistic that post‐election euphoria will be all pervasive and help to lift the rupee also," Mistry said.

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