Economic Survey 2026 highlights: Trade no longer reciprocal, markets no longer neutral, says CEA

Amit Gupta, Partner at Saraf and Partners :

The Economic Survey 2025-26 portrays a positive narrative on India’s trajectory and strong macroeconomic fundaments in the backdrop of Global political and economic turmoil. Even whilst listing out three possible scenarios that could play out Globally, the Survey pegs India at a better footing compared to other countries. India’s fiscal resilience was also reflected in the upgrade to its sovereign ratings by international agencies.

The Survey highlights that India’s tripod of tax reforms in the form of reduced corporate tax rates, personal income tax reliefs and radical overhaul of the Goods and Services Tax are delivering results, but sustaining momentum will require continued simplification, further widening of the base, and tighter coordination with states.

The combination of tax relief, improved ease of doing business, sustained public investment, and deliberate shift toward capital formation and human capital investment cumulatively create a favorable environment for India’s economy continued growth. However, the road ahead would entail its own set of challenges including Global uncertainties, currency pressures, uneven state finances which would need to be navigated through policy and stronger private sector participation for maintaining this trajectory.

Ramji Subramaniam, Managing Director, Sowparnika Projects:

"The real estate sector continues to be a strong pillar of India’s growth story. And, we hope that the upcoming Union Budget will introduce progressive measures to improve affordability, liquidity, and long-term demand.

One of the key interventions that we urge the government to consider is extending the 1% GST benefit for affordable housing to homes priced up to INR 65-75 lakh, from the current INR 45 lakh threshold. With land prices in cities rising by 50-75% in recent years and construction costs escalating due to higher raw material prices and a persistent shortage of skilled labour, such a move would reflect current market realities. It would offer relief to first-time homebuyers while allowing developers to focus on making housing accessible for all. We also hope the government considers revising Section 80EEA.  Enhancing the price ceiling and extending its validity would further strengthen affordability, especially for first-time buyers. This is likely to convert latent demand into actual home purchases. At the same time, one of the industry’s long-standing demands for single-window clearance remains critical. It will help reduce approval timelines, lower holding costs, and ensure timely project delivery. These benefits are ultimately passed on to the homebuyers.

Additionally, rationalisation of GST for under-construction projects would help offset rising input costs and improve project viability. The right policy support can help the sector to continue generating employment, drive infrastructure-backed growth, and support sustainable urban development. Such measures will strengthen investor confidence and accelerate the sector’s contribution to the Indian economy.”

Madhusudan G, CMD at Sumadhura group:

As we look ahead to Budget 2026, the real estate sector is seeking not blanket measures, but thoughtful, targeted policies that reflect a maturing and increasingly segmented market. While mid-income and affordable housing continue to face affordability pressures due to rising land and construction costs, premium and luxury housing have emerged as a key growth driver, supported by higher disposable incomes, evolving lifestyle preferences, and sustained investor confidence. In this context, it is important to revisit the ₹45 lakh affordable housing cap on a city-specific basis so that incentives reach genuine first-time buyers. Long-pending structural reforms—such as a time-bound single-window clearance system to streamline project approvals and the formal recognition of real estate as an industry—are also crucial. Industry status would broaden access to institutional capital, enable long-term financing, and help create a more structured, credit-friendly ecosystem. Alongside clearer taxation and GST guidelines for under-construction homes, faster home-loan processing, stronger RERA enforcement, and continued investment in urban infrastructure, these measures would enhance execution certainty and support balanced, sustainable growth across both affordable and premium segments over the long term. Recognising real estate as an industry is a pivotal step toward professionalising the sector, improving investor confidence, and ensuring a steady flow of formal capital into housing development.

Somdutta Singh, Serial Entrepreneur, Founder and CEO Assiduus Global

As we look at the Union Budget 2026, there is a clear opportunity to address the execution constraints that increasingly shape how e-commerce and digital trade businesses grow in India. E-commerce already plays an important role in exports, MSME participation, and cross-border brand building, yet scaling is often slowed by operational friction rather than lack of demand.

GST and compliance sit at the center of this challenge. For marketplace-led and cross-border models, delayed input-credit settlements and layered compliance structures create gaps between when taxes are paid and when credits return. This ties up working capital at the moment. Businesses need liquidity to expand inventory, test new markets, or manage returns. Many companies are forced to balance growth ambitions with cash-flow stability. Faster and more predictable credit cycles would ease this pressure and improve clarity on unit economics.

Compliance burdens also rise sharply once digital-first businesses cross certain scale thresholds, often just as momentum builds, making expansion more cautious than necessary.

Beyond taxation, logistics and supply chains must be treated as core economic infrastructure. A budget that reduces friction at scale and improves capital efficiency would support sustainable, globally competitive growth for India’s e-commerce ecosystem.

Omkar Borkar, Association of Certified Fraud Examiners, National Forensic Science     University - Student Chapter

As the upcoming Budget is expected to deepen digital compliance, real-time reporting and data integration across tax systems, businesses should prepare for far greater visibility into their procurement and payment cycles. Automated matching of GST invoices, bank transactions and e-way bills will make inflated billing, duplicate vendors and circular transactions easier to detect. For many companies, especially fast-growing MSMEs, weak vendor onboarding, poor segregation of duties and manual invoice approvals remain major blind spots. The next phase of compliance will shift from filing accuracy to transaction integrity. Business owners should strengthen vendor due diligence, introduce three-way matching for purchases, maintain clean audit trails and periodically conduct forensic vendor reviews. Strong internal controls will not only reduce fraud exposure but also prevent cash leakage and compliance surprises as regulatory scrutiny becomes increasingly data-driven.

Sohong Dhar, Data scientist. Microsoft Azure:

From the AI industry’s perspective, Union Budget 2026 should enable innovation-led growth while safeguarding competition and fiscal sustainability. AI investments at the intermediate layer—such as compute infrastructure, foundational models, and frontier R&D—are highly capital-intensive, long-gestation, and scale-dependent, requiring sustained private capital mobilization. Carefully targeted, time-bound incentives can crowd in investment without distorting downstream consumer markets. Empirical evidence across advanced and emerging economies indicates that AI-led disruption primarily reflects skill–task mismatches rather than net job loss. The Budget should therefore priorities employer-linked upskilling and continuous learning frameworks within a disciplined fiscal framework to support long-term productivity and macroeconomic stability.

N. Nagabushana Reddy said:

The industry is looking for positive measures that directly improve housing affordability and strengthen buyer confidence. Key expectations include enhanced tax incentives for homebuyers, rationalization of GST on under construction properties, and a more streamlined approach to stamp duties to make transactions more efficient. A major focus should be on reducing the effective cost of home ownership for the interested home buyers. While policy rates have softened, home loan EMIs remains relatively high. Interest subventions, flexible loan tenures, and targeted incentives for first time buyers can help translate policy easing into meaningful relief, particularly in large urban markets where affordability remains stretched.

There is also a need to revisit housing incentive frameworks by updating income and property value thresholds to reflect current market realities, ensuring benefits reach genuine end users. From a developer perspective, the next phase of reforms should focus on easing project level financing through structured private credit, clearer tax treatment, and a more predictable regulatory environment for alternative investment platforms. Together, these steps can support timely project execution, sustained supply, and long term growth of the sector.

Hirav Shah, Business Strategist and Founder of the World’s First Decision Validation & Rescue Hub for Business Leaders, on expectations for Budget 2026

"Energy, power, defence, digital, and AI remain strong long-term growth drivers, while entertainment, startups, infrastructure and sports continue to mature economically.

Business strategist Hirav Shah says, “A budget works like Google Maps—it shows direction, not the journey.” To convert this direction into results, leaders should follow 6+3+2 success framework—six drivers (hard work, mindset, skills, strategy, execution, and timing), three traits (hunger, dedication, and consistency), and two accelerators (innovation and marketing).

“In 2026, customer experience while buying will matter as much as what is being sold.”

The Railway Ministry rationalised passenger fares on three occasions over the last five years, consequent to which the share of freight earnings in its total income declined gradually from 68 per cent to 65 per cent, and is further expected to fall to 62 per cent, according to the Economic Survey for the financial year 2025-26 tabled in Parliament on Thursday.

The Survey analysed the Railways’ economic performance over the past financial year and presented an outlook for the upcoming fiscal.

It focused on cross-subsidisation in railway traffic, under which the Railways earns profits from freight services but uses them to offset losses from passenger and other services.

“During the last five years, passenger fare has been rationalised on three occasions, i.e., on January 1, 2020, July 1, 2025, and December 26, 2025, and consequently, the share of freight earnings in gross traffic receipts declined gradually from 68 per cent in FY-23 to 65 per cent in FY-25 and is budgeted to be 62 per cent in FY-26,” the Survey said.

The 'doomsday scenario' for artificial intelligence (AI)'s impact on job losses hasn't arrived—at least, not yet.

The Economic Survey 2025-26, which was tabled in Parliament on January 29, states that early evidence has begun to temper some of the "extreme predictions surrounding AI’s near-term labour impact".

For instance, an Yale’s Budget Lab study indicates that the broader labour market in the United States has not experienced a discernible disruption due to AI while a study by Brynjolfsson, Chandar, and Chen (2025) highlights that the difference in job prospects between occupations highly exposed to AI and those with relatively low exposure is minor. Read more

Archit Gupta, founder & CEO, ClearTax, on new tax regime expectations:

The New Regime is now the undisputed winner for earners under Rs 25 Lakh, who value its simplicity and lower rates. However, according to ClearTax data, 26% of filers still continue to cling to the Old Regime. The reason is structural: their entire financial lifecycle is deeply anchored in legacy benefits like HRA and home loans. For this group, switching isn't just a tax calculation; it is a disruption that breaks the long-term wealth structure they have spent years building.

* Home Ownership: Reintroduce the interest deduction benefit (Section 24b) for self-occupied homes in the new regime. Currently this benefit is available only in the old regime.

* Retirement Planning: Expand deductions beyond just the NPS. Recognize that high earners rely on a mix of EPF, PPF, ELSS etc for building a safety net.

* Taxation of ESOPs: Tax ESOPs only at sale of shares (liquidity) to encourage wealth creation and support IPO participation.

* Tax Benefit on NPS: The government recently increased the lump sum withdrawal limit of NPS from 60% to 80%, but the tax free limit is still stuck at 60% and the additional 20% gets taxed at slab rate. The Budget should reconsider this reform and make the entire 80% tax-free to be able to exercise the true benefits of investing in NPS.

Ayush Misra - Co-Founder & CEO of AmpereHour Energy: 

As we look ahead to the Union Budget for FY 2026, we expect a strong policy signal reinforcing India’s commitment to a resilient, secure, and clean energy future. With BESS and advanced EMS emerging as the backbone of a flexible power grid, targeted incentives to reduce upfront capital costs will be critical to accelerating energy storage deployment and enabling this transition.

We are optimistic about stronger support for both BESS developers and domestic energy storage manufacturers. Continued viability gap funding is essential to scale projects during this early phase, while a clear, phased roadmap on manufacturing incentives and import duties for battery packs and containers will build investor confidence, ensure competitiveness of local manufacturing, and unlock private capex into domestic facilities.

Sustained investments have enabled faster rail network expansion, with track commissioning rates more than doubling in the post-2014 period compared to the previous decade, the Economic Survey for the financial year 2025–26, tabled in Parliament on Thursday, said.

According to the Survey, the average commissioning of railway tracks per year between 2004 and 2014 was 1,499 km, which increased to 3,118 km between 2014 and 2024.

"Indian Railways continue to play a pivotal role in India's infrastructure landscape by expanding network capacity, modernising assets and strengthening multimodal connectivity," the Survey said.

It added, "As of March 2025, the rail network has expanded to 69,439 Rkm (Route Kilometer). During FY26, it is targeted to extend the network further by 3,500 km. Electrification has reached 99.1 per cent of the network by October 2025." The Survey stated that a defining feature of recent years has been record capital expenditure on railway infrastructure, with a focus on new lines, doubling and multi-tracking, rolling stock augmentation, signalling, and safety-related works.

Anand S Kabra, chairman and managing director, Kabra Extrusiontechnik Ltd Limited & GEON:

The upcoming Budget comes at a critical moment for India’s energy landscape. With the green transition gaining momentum, the industry expects policy measures that not only accelerate adoption but also strengthen the domestic ecosystem for clean energy technologies.

Support for energy storage, electric mobility, and advanced electronics will be essential to ensure that India is not just a consumer of future technologies but a global contributor to them. Equally important is a policy framework that encourages innovation, improves ease of doing business, and enables sustainable manufacturing at scale.

If aligned well, the Budget can act as a catalyst for long-term growth, positioning India as a leader in sustainable and technology-driven industries.”

The past few weeks have seen a heated discussion over the earnings and the working conditions of gig workers in India, with several data staffing agencies and online platforms trying to paint a rosy picture.

The Economic Survey, released on January 29, has now waded into the debate and shared its findings. According to the Survey, 40 percent of the total gig workers in the country earn less than Rs 15,000 per month, which is way below what several previous reports and company claims have said. The earning is also below the entry level salary paid under the 7th Pay Commission. Read more

India’s medium-term growth potential has strengthened to around 7 percent from 6.5 percent earlier, reflecting the cumulative impact of sustained policy reforms, strong macroeconomic fundamentals and improved growth momentum across key indicators, according to the Economic Survey 2025–26.

“Together, the developments make a persuasive case that India’s potential growth has risen to around 7 per cent over the medium term,” the survey said, adding the economy is “positioned on a path of steady expansion amid global uncertainty”. Read more

India's public-private partnership (PPP) framework needs to move from transaction-centric execution toward system-level market building, with a sharper focus on reducing structural uncertainty, the Economic Survey 2025-26 suggested on Thursday.

The pre-Budget document tabled in Parliament further said that this requires clearer sectoral pipelines with multi-year visibility, a tighter linkage between national programmes and bankable project preparation, as well as disciplined pre-construction risk closure by the public authority.

The Survey noted that PPP outcomes have been weakest where land acquisition, statutory clearances, demand assessment, or utility shifting have remained unresolved.

In the coming decade, it said a credible PPP regime will be defined less by risk transfer on paper and more by the State’s capacity to absorb early-stage risks that private capital cannot efficiently price.

Sunil Kharbanda, Co-founder and COO at Trezix: 

India’s growth trajectory is now inseparable from its global trade ambition. The nation is moving beyond the narrative of self-reliance toward becoming strategically indispensable in global value chains. With manufacturing strength, high-technology competitiveness driven by PLI, and world-leading Digital Public Infrastructure as a foundation of trust and efficiency, India is emerging as a future-ready hub for global commerce. What makes this moment even more transformational is India’s accelerating adoption of AI positioning technology, talent, and data as new pillars of productivity and trade advantage. Backed by growing confidence in Free Trade Agreements and deeper international partnerships, India is no longer just integrating into the world economy it is preparing to shape the next era of AI-enabled global trade

Economic Survey: Nearly two decades on, the RTI Act may need re-examination, not to dilute its spirit, but to align it with global best practices, incorporate evolving lessons, and keep it firmly anchored to its original intent. A few possible adjustments may be worth exploring. One could be to exempt brainstorming notes, working papers, and draft comments until they form part of the final record of decision-making.

Survey: Another option could be to protect service records, transfers, and confidential staff reports from casual requests that add little value to the public interest. A third might be to explore a narrowly defined ministerial veto, subject to parliamentary oversight, to guard against disclosures that could unduly constrain governance. These are not prescriptions, but suggestions worth debating to ensure that the Act remains effective while also safeguarding the integrity of decision-making.

CEA: States have taken up deregulation very enthusiastically on land, construction, labour, utilities and permissions. They are now embarking on phase 2 of deregulation.

CEA: India's potential growth is 7%

CEA: The potential growth can rise to 7.5-8% in the next few years, provided we keep up the pace of reforms

The Economic Survey 2025–26 has proposed a reimagining of India’s e-Way Bill system to make it a facilitator of smooth logistics rather than merely a tool for enforcement and control. The move aims to reduce costs and delays in movement of goods while maintaining effective oversight for tax administration. (Read More)

CEA: If renewable energy were to become a significant part of the energy picture, we need to understand the ramifications, the amount of material required and the energy required to therefore generate renewable energy should not be underestimated. We should go into it with open eyes.

CEA: We should not be squeamish in swearing by Swadeshi in current global environment.

CEA: India will see imports rise even further, as it goes to $20,000 per capita in the next 25 years.

The Economic Survey 2025–26 tabled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in Lok Sabha on Thursday has delivered a blunt message to state governments, warning that India's high-growth ambitions will falter unless states overhaul governance, execution and regulatory systems. The Survey states that "the next phase of growth will be determined not by policy intent, but by state capacity to implement reforms", flagging uneven performance across states as the biggest structural risk to the economy.  The Survey identified weak execution as the primary bottleneck, noting that while states have announced multiple reforms, delivery remains inconsistent and slow. "Implementation gaps have emerged as a binding constraint on economic performance," the Survey notes, adding that delays, overlapping approvals and manual processes continue to raise transaction costs for businesses. (Read More)

CEA: Geopolitical tensions are inevitable. Uncertainties are higher now since the start of the millennium. Gold prices are not only responding to global uncertainties, but also the value of Fiat currency

During the post-Economic Survey media briefing, Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran flagged rising obesity as a major challenge to fully reaping India's demographic dividend. He stressed the need for food labelling to clearly reflect health risks, enabling people to make informed and conscious choices about what they consume.

Exchange rates are influenced not just by trade balance but also what happens in the capital account. (Read More)

India’s gig workforce stands at 77 lakh workers, accounting for just over 2 percent of total employment, underscoring both the growing role and the still limited scale of platform-led work in the country’s labour market, according to the Economic Survey 2025–26. The Survey notes that gig employment has expanded rapidly over the past few years alongside the growth of digital platforms, smartphone penetration and digital payments, while highlighting persistent challenges related to income stability, access to credit and social security coverage. (Read More)

CEA: The next wave of GST reforms could, therefore, focus on reimagining the e-Way Bill system as a facilitator of smooth logistics rather than only as a tool for enforcement and control, in line with the changing needs of businesses and supply chains.

CEA: In FY26, FDI has been on the weaker side, partly because of profit taking by investors who have invested in the earlier decades, and also because of the compulsion that Indian businesses face to invest overseas. So as a result, net FDI numbers are not where you would want them to be

If the AI boom fails to deliver the anticipated productivity gains, it could trigger a correction in overly optimistic asset valuations, with the potential for broader financial contagion: Economic Survey

India has had a very steep decline in data cost compared to any other country in the world. Perhaps we are the cheapest. And of course, I would consider it a mixed blessing in different ways, says CEA

Number of broadband subscribers have gone up from six crores to 100 crores. And for Department of telecom, In terms of deregulation processes, the application approval time but centralised portals has come down by 90% from 450 days to just 40 days, says CEA

India, an oasis of economic performance in the global scenario: Dr Nageswaran

Forex reserves are more than double: CEA Dr Nageswaran

GDP growth estimated at 6.8%-7.2%: CEA Dr Nageswaran

CEA: The flow of resources to the non-government or the commercial sector, including households and businesses remain adequate. The annual growth rate in the last five years has been 29%, that is ample resource availability in the system for economic activity and investment spend.

CEA: The banning of online gaming does matter for mental health and also for your wallets health.

CEA: core inflation is well behaved, if you take out gold and silver. Benign inflation trends are expected to continue next year as well

CEA: India's growth numbers stand out from any other part in the world.

CEA: Import cover has now stands at nearly a year. Current Account Balance is very well behaved. External debt is now down to 19.2% from 23.8% last year.

The Chief Economic Advisor is addressing media. Stay with us for latest updates.

"The Economic Survey 2026 signals a clear warning: India’s rising obesity burden is tightly linked to the rapid spread of ultra-processed foods. What was once a nutrition transition has become a public health and economic risk. Diets high in sugar, salt and unhealthy fats are fuelling obesity, diabetes and heart disease undermining productivity and driving long-term healthcare costs. This is no longer just about individual choice; it is about food environments shaped by pricing, marketing and convenience. The policy response must shift from treatment to prevention through smarter taxation, clearer food labelling, restrictions on marketing to children, and stronger promotion of affordable, nutritious diets"

Armed conflict has flared up in Eastern Europe and Western Asia after decades of relative peace. Even traditionally pacifist nations like Japan have upped their defence spending to 2 per cent of their GDP.

Strategic competition is increasingly fuelling trade wars, while nations vie for access to critical minerals and technological resources in a manner reminiscent of a new colonial scramble.

The government should not move to provide quick fixes to short-term pressures but choose to build resilience and provide impetus to innovation to stay the course towards Viksit Bharat, the Economic Survey tabled by the government on January 29 said. “The country stands to gain immensely when all of us embrace delayed gratification,” Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran noted in his preface to the survey. (Read More)

RBI may hold rates steady for now, but Budget 2026 will play a critical role in shaping monetary policy expectations. From borrowing plans to capex intent, fiscal signals will determine how much room banks have to manage margins and profitability (Read More)

In 2025, gold was not just a hedge; it was an outperformer. While equities rose and credit stress eased, gold delivered superior returns, underscoring its role as the preferred asset when investors stayed cautious despite calmer bond markets.

Economic survey: The (real estate) sector entered a sustained upcycle from September 2021, post-COVID, as reflected in improved sales, driven by higher household savings channelled towards physical assets. The momentum has continued in recent quarters, supported by favourable affordability conditions and easing inflation.

Credit flows from non-bank financial companies (NBFCs) (net of bank borrowings), to the commercial sector grew at a robust compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 43.3 per cent during FY20 to FY25, significantly outpacing the 25 per cent CAGR recorded for non-food bank credit over the same period.4

This evolving landscape has been further strengthened by the growing role of Infrastructure Investment Trusts (InvITs) and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), which are enabling long-term institutional capital to participate in infrastructure assets.

Economic Survey: Digital addiction, for the first time has been elevated to a national public‑health concern. The document warns that India is witnessing a surge in behavioural‑health risks linked to excessive screen time, social‑media overuse, and technology‑driven compulsions—especially among adolescents.

While the Centre has achieved consolidation alongside record public investment, rising revenue deficits and unconditional cash transfers in several States pose emerging risks by crowding out growth-enhancing spending.

With Indian government bonds now globally indexed and investors increasingly assessing general-government finances, weak fiscal discipline at the State level can no longer be treated as locally contained—it increasingly affects the cost of sovereign borrowing.

States’ fiscal priorities, perhaps, are casting a shadow on the sovereign’s borrowing cost, as investors focus on the fiscal parameters of the general government rather than just those of the Union government. More importantly, the economic costs of the insidious impact that unconditional fiscal transfers have on the incentives for self-improvement, upskilling, and employability may be more significant in the long term.

Legendary journalist Sir Mark Tully, who recently passed away at the age of 90, found mention in the Economic Survey. Concluding the survey, the key pre-budget document has the remark by the former BBC broadcaster. “If India is to truly fulfill its potential, it must move from a ‘Ruler’s Raj’ to a ‘Citizen’s Raj’.” Sir Mark Tully had made the remarks during 9th Nani Palkhivala Memorial Lecture in Chennai on February 12, 2011.

The outlook for the global economy remains dim over the medium-term, with downside risks dominating. At the global level, growth is expected to remain modest, leading to broadly stable commodity price trends.

For India, these global conditions translate into external uncertainties rather than immediate macroeconomic stress. Slower growth in key trading partners, tariff-induced disruptions to trade and volatility in capital flows could intermittently weigh on exports and investor sentiment

The AI Economic Council, separate from the Governance Council, is intended to operate, not just with a technological imperative, but with moral imperatives that are sensitive to India’s socio-economic realities. They will operate as a coordinating authority that is responsible for aligning technology deployment with the evolution of India’s education and skilling infrastructure, while navigating resource constraints and developmental priorities.

Economic Survey: India currently operates approximately 0.11 airports per million people, significantly lower than the US (47.35) and China (0.39), signalling substantial headroom for further growth

The pursuit of a diversified trade strategy, as evidenced by the signing of trade agreements with the UK, Oman, and New Zealand and the EU, and active negotiations with US, bodes well for India’s exports, says eco survey

Investor reluctance to commit to India warrants examination, says eco survey

India’s recent trade agreements are proof that we have taken note of this. A significant development in this regard is the recently concluded free trade agreement with the European Union after three years of negotiations, which will now require ratification by the European Parliament. In the current global context, the agreement expands market access for India’s labour-intensive manufactured exports while enabling deeper integration with Europe’s technological and manufacturing capabilities. The FTA with Europe can support the continent’s efforts to revitalise parts of its manufacturing base and, at the same time, strengthen India’s manufacturing competitiveness, export resilience and strategic capacity. Realising the potential of trade agreements requires that we can produce competitivel, says eco survey

Agriculture will be central to achieving Viksit Bharat, driving inclusive growth and improving the livelihoods of millions: Economic Survey

Growth in rural telephone connections outpaced urban growth, indicating a narrowing digital access divide: Eco Survey

A robust and stable currency can only be achieved through export competitiveness. History demonstrates that countries with sustained manufacturing export success are those that have maintained hard currency status, characterised by currency stability and strength

Inflation is likely to stay benign in the coming year as well, supported by favourable supply-side conditions and the gradual pass-through of GST rate rationalisation, according to Economic Survey tabled by the government on January 29. In December, India’s inflation averaged 1.3 percent, below RBI’s 2-6 percent band for a fourth consecutive month. (Read More)

The telecom sector has shown early signs of import substitution, with exports growing at a 1.5% average annual rate while imports have fallen 18.5% annually. The trend aligns with the PLI scheme’s objective of boosting domestic production and expanding India’s export footprint, underscoring the programme’s impact on trade performance: Eco Survey

The electronics sector's surge has been driven by a sharp rise in domestic production and exports, led by mobile manufacturing, where output value has jumped nearly 30-fold from Rs 18,000 crore in FY15 to Rs 5.45 lakh crore in FY25: Eco Survey

India has moved from being a net importer to the world’s second-largest mobile phone manufacturer, with over 300 factories today compared to just two in 2014: Eco Survey

The outlook for FY27 is one of steady growth amid global uncertainty, requiring caution, but not pessimism.

FY27 is therefore expected to be a year of adjustment, as firms and households adapt to these changes, with domestic demand and investment gaining strength. It must be acknowledged that the external environment remains uncertain.

India’s electronics sector has climbed from the seventh-largest export category in FY22 to the third-largest and fastest-growing by FY25.

With exports reaching $22.2 billion in the first half of FY26, the sector is now on track to become India’s second-largest export: Eco Survey

New CPI series will have implications for inflation assessment and warrant careful interpretation of price dynamics, says eco survey

“With domestic drivers playing a dominant role and macroeconomic stability well anchored, the balance of risks around growth remains broadly even. Taking these considerations together, the Economic Survey projects real GDP growth in FY27 in the range of 6.8 to 7.2 per cent,” Economic Survey

Even as the global economy navigates uncertainty, India continues to chart a State of the Economy 99 strong growth path, as reflected in the First Advance Estimates (FAE) for FY26 released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). These estimates place the real GDP growth rate at 7.4 per cent and the GVA growth rate at 7.3 per cent, surpassing earlier projections by various agencies and our own estimates in the Economic Survey of 2024-25, and reaffirming India's status as the fastest-growing major economy for the fourth consecutive year, says economic survey.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has tabled the Economic Survey for FY26 in the Lok Sabha.

On 28 January, the session began with a joint address by President Droupadi Murmu to both Houses of Parliament.

On 29 January, Parliament will meet as per the provisional calendar issued by the Lok Sabha Secretariat. On the same day, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the Economic Survey at 12 pm, followed by a key press briefing by Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran.

On 1 February, the finance minister will present the Union Budget 2026 in the Lok Sabha at 11 am.

The first half of the Budget Session will conclude on 13 February, while the second half will commence on 9 March.

The Budget Session will end on 2 April, after which both the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha will be adjourned sine die.

India's gold demand is likely to fall in 2026 following a drop of 11% last year, as a surge in prices dampens jewellery sales and offsets an uptick in investment buying, the World Gold Council (WGC) said on Thursday. Demand for gold could stand between 600 metric tons and 700 metric tons, compared to 710.9 tons last year, which was the lowest in five years, Sachin Jain, chief executive of the WGC's Indian operations, told Reuters. Jewellery buyers prefer stable prices of gold, but the volatile rising prices of recent months have far outstripped consumer budgets, Jain said. - Reuters

The Economic Survey document is structured in two sections-Part A and Part B. Part A outlines key macroeconomic developments during the fiscal year and presents a broad assessment of the Indian economy. Part B focuses on specific socio-economic issues related to the economy.

The full official Economic Survey 2026 document can be downloaded in PDF format from the government's official website at indiabudget.gov.in/economicsurvey/index.php. The download link will be activated only after the presentation of the survey is completed.

The Economic Survey 2025 projected India's real GDP growth at 6.4% in FY25, based on the first advance estimates of national income, and identified deregulation as a key enabler of the vision for a "Viksit Bharat."

It noted that retail headline inflation eased to 4.9% during April-December 2024 from 5.4% in FY24, supported by government initiatives and monetary policy measures. Gross foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows also picked up in FY25, rising to $55.6 billion in the first eight months from $47.2 billion in the same period of FY24, marking a year-on-year growth of 17.9%.

The survey further underscored that sustaining India's growth trajectory over the next decade will require substantial investment in infrastructure.

In his column in the Mint, the Chief Economic Advisor also wrote about the one of the key pillars of economic growth – manufacturing.

“Countries that have built a strong manufacturing base, export manufactured goods and run external surpluses have enjoyed strong and stable currencies in the post-Bretton Woods era. But they did so at a time when the climate was not a pressing concern and energy-transition considerations were distant. They were also not required to reckon with a hyper-competitive manufacturing powerhouse like China, which posted a trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion in 2025. At the same time, manufactured goods and primary as well as intermediate inputs have become part of the strategic balancing that countries engage in. As a result, indigenisation has acquired an urgency that did not exist even half-a-decade ago. Further, rapid advances in artificial intelligence over the last year have raised new questions for a nation that needs to generate at least 8 million jobs annually,” the CEA wrote.

Economic outlook: The Economic Survey reviews the Indian economy's performance over the past year, factoring in global political and economic developments. It also lays out the government's outlook for growth in FY26.

Employment trends: Youth employment and skill development remain key priorities for the government, with the Survey expected to highlight progress and challenges in job creation.

Inflation trends: The Survey will track inflation trends from the previous financial year and provide guidance on the outlook for the coming fiscal.

External sector: An assessment of the external sector will reflect India's readiness to navigate global economic uncertainties. With the country actively pursuing trade agreements with multiple nations, this segment is likely to be in sharp focus.

The proceedings of the Budget Session have begun. All eyes on the Eco Survey presentation.

Concluding his remarks, the Prime Minister said the session has begun on a positive note, adding that a confident India has emerged as a beacon of hope for the world and a growing centre of global attraction.

Modi said Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is the country's first woman finance minister to present the Budget for the ninth consecutive time, calling it a proud moment in India's parliamentary history.

Modi noted that a quarter of the 21st century has already passed and the second quarter is now beginning. He said the next 25 years will be decisive in achieving the goal of a developed India by 2047.

Highlighting the significance of the ongoing session, the Prime Minister said the Budget Session marks the beginning of 2026 and comes at a pivotal moment for the country.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the President's Address at the start of the session clearly laid out expectations for Members of Parliament. He noted that, as the head of the nation, the President conveyed her sentiments in simple terms and expressed confidence that MPs had taken them seriously.

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PM Narendra Modi says, "1/4 of the 21st century has gone by. This is the beginning of the next quarter. To attain the goal of Viksit Bharat 2047, the important phase of these 25 years has begun. The first Budget of this second quarter of the century is about to be presented. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is the first FM of the country, the first woman FM of the country who is presenting the Budget in the Parliament for the 9th consecutive time. This is registered as a proud moment in the Parliamentary history of the countr

The Budget Session of Parliament commenced yesterday with the President's Address. While no legislative business is scheduled in the Lok Sabha, the Rajya Sabha's agenda includes the tabling of the Economic Survey for 2025-26.

"The Economic Survey aims to inform the public about the state of the economy and stimulate discussion on the issues confronting both the governed and the governing, the paths that lie ahead and the ones they must decide to tread. Given the depth and breadth of topics covered, the Economic Survey this time is longer than usual. It is also organised differently from previous editions," CEA Anantha Nageswaran says in a column in the Mint.

The expanding salaried middle class will be hard for Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to overlook. This group is formally employed, financially invested and increasingly asset-owning, with EMIs to service, portfolios to grow and inflation risks to manage. With more at stake than ever before, they show limited tolerance for fiscal populism and instead seek policy execution, stability and opportunity. As a result, the next round of reforms promised by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Sitharaman will be judged through new lenses by the growing core of India's salaried taxpayers-particularly on how effectively they enhance ease of living.

Sensex slumps 600 points, Nifty slips below 25,200; Maruti Suzuki, SBI Life, Asian Paints among top losers (Check LIVE Update )

Manish Shah, MD & CEO of Godrej Capital, said that as India enters the next phase of financial deepening, the emphasis must move beyond merely expanding credit to improving the quality, accessibility and sustainability of finance. While capital availability has improved, he noted that the real opportunity lies in making finance more affordable, flexible and better aligned with the cash-flow realities of households, MSMEs and emerging entrepreneurs. He added that the Union Budget 2026 can play a meaningful role by deepening domestic liquidity and strengthening risk-sharing frameworks such as credit guarantees and co-lending structures. According to Shah, these steps would help lower borrowing costs, enable longer and more predictable tenures, and create repayment structures that offer greater certainty to borrowers.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will table the Economic Survey 2026 in Parliament today. Last year, the government had projected India's economic growth for FY26 in the range of 6.3-6.8 per cent, but actual outcomes largely exceeded those estimates. According to the latest government projections, the economy is expected to grow a better-than-anticipated 7.4 per cent in FY26, up from 6.5 per cent in FY25, driven by rising investment and a surge in manufacturing activity.

Defence, railways and road transport emerged as the key sectors for investment in the last fiscal year. Together, these segments accounted for nearly 75 per cent of total capital expenditure until November 2024.

Gold and silver futures surged to record levels on Thursday, with silver crossing Rs 4 lakh and gold nearing Rs 1.8 lakh per 10 grams on the MCX. The rally has been fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions and the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, strengthening safe-haven demand for precious metals amid heightened global uncertainty.

While sounding confident about the strength of Indian economy on the back of fiscal prudence, conservatism and economic growth, the Chief Economic Advisor said that the current world politics is 'in flux.' "Most agree that the world order they were comfortable with is no longer relevant. Beyond that, agreement ends. There is little clarity on what might replace it, or whether such clarity will emerge gradually or through a catalytic — or even cathartic — event," Nageswaran wrote.

Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran has written a column on the day the Eco Survey will be presented. In a column published in The Mint, the CEA touches upon various themes such as rupee depreciation, geopolitical volatility and more

The Survey will set the tone for Budget 2026 by spelling out India’s growth outlook, inflation risks, capex momentum, jobs signals and external-sector pressure points. The Economic Survey for FY26 will be tabled in Parliament on January 29, two days before the Union Budget, setting the official tone on how strong India’s economy really is, and how much policy room the government believes it has going into FY27. (Read More)

Rupee hits record low of 92.00 against US dollar in early trade

Ahead of the release of the Economic Survey and the presentation of the Union Budget by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, the Congress raised doubts over the government's economic claims, alleging that inequality is increasing while welfare measures are being rolled back.

The opposition party released a report on the state of the economy a day before the Budget Session of Parliament, saying it was necessary to place the "facts" before the public. The party claimed the government would otherwise promote its narrative through the President's address to Parliament, the Economic Survey and the Union Budget.

The Congress' flagship annual report, titled "Inequality on the Rise, Welfare in Retreat - Real State of the Economy 2026", was unveiled by All India Congress Committee (AICC) Research Department chairman Rajeev Gowda along with party leader Amitabh Dubey.

Gold extended its record-breaking rally and US stock-index futures fell, as escalating tensions over Iran injected fresh uncertainty into markets. The dollar pared Wednesday’s gains and oil climbed. Gold rallied past $5,550 an ounce to set a new all-time high as President Donald Trump warned Iran to make a nuclear deal with the US or face military strikes far worse than the attack he ordered last June. Silver climbed 1.2% to an all-time high and Brent crude rose 0.8% to the highest level since September. Stocks lost momentum with contracts for the S&P 500 Index falling as much as 0.2%. Mixed megacap earnings and a profit beat by Samsung Electronics Co. failed to ignite technology stocks. Tesla Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc. jumped in aftermarket trading, while Microsoft Corp. slumped following earnings reports. - Bloomberg

Begin by reviewing the table of contents, as it offers a quick overview of the key themes covered in a particular year. Use the search feature within PDF files to find specific terms such as "inflation," "employment," or "agriculture."

Comparing surveys from consecutive years can help identify trends in indicators like GDP growth, the fiscal deficit and sector-wise performance. Many editions also feature charts and infographics that present complex data in a more accessible and comparative format.

While we wait for the findings of the Economic Survey, another critically important financial event happened in other side of the world. The US Federal Reserve announced the benchmark interest rates in closely watched presser earlier today. Despite the persistent criticism from US President Donald Trump, Fed Chair Jerome Powell kept the interest rate steady in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%. “In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 per cent,” the FOMC said in the statement.

Until 1964, the Economic Survey was presented as part of the Union Budget and functioned as an official economic record to guide budget-related deliberations in Parliament. It was later delinked from the Budget to give lawmakers and the public a clearer, data-backed assessment of the state of the economy ahead of fiscal policy decisions. By highlighting key challenges, risks and structural issues, the Survey also provides essential context for the government's policy direction.