Expect RBI to cut rates by 50-75 bps in 2012-13: ICRA

ICRA has come out with its comments on the RBI's Mid-Quarter Review of Monetary Policy, June 2012. The research firm expects the space available for further monetary easing to be limited to around 50-75 bps over the remainder of 2012-13.

Highlights of the RBI’s Mid-Quarter Review of Monetary Policy for 2011-12 – June 2012

• Benchmark Repo Rate maintained at 8.0%; Reverse Repo and Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) stand unchanged at 7.0% and 9.0%, respectively.
• ICRA has come out with its comments on the RBI's Mid-Quarter Review of Monetary Policy, June 2012. The research firm expects the space available for further monetary easing to be limited to around 50-75 bps over the remainder of 2012-13.
• Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) unchanged at 4.75% and 24%, respectively.
• Limit of export credit refinance raised to 50% from 15%, to ease liquidity and support export growth. Measure expected by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to release potential additional liquidity of Rs. 30,000 crore, equivalent to a 50 basis points (bps) CRR cut.
• Focus of monetary policy shifts back to inflation management, with headline inflation higher than levels consistent with sustainable growth and rising retail inflation, despite stable core inflation indicating lower pricing power.
• As compared to high nominal interest rates, other factors seen as contributing more significantly to the moderation in growth. Accordingly, further reduction in the policy rate viewed by RBI as fuelling inflationary pressures rather than supporting growth.
• Guidance that RBI would continue to use Open Market Operations (OMOs) to ease liquidity as required, while it stands ready to use all available instruments for a rapid and appropriate response to adverse developments.

Overall Comment
Contrary to ICRA’s expectations of a 25 bps cut in the Repo Rate following the weak growth indicators, the RBI maintained the policy rate at 8.0% in its mid-quarter credit policy. Notwithstanding its concerns regarding the deeper-than-expected slowdown in domestic growth and the tenuous external environment, the RBI’s focus seems to have shifted again towards managing inflationary expectations in view of persistent supply constraints, inadequate adjustment in aggregate demand and double-digit retail inflation. The RBI’s decision to provide higher refinance limits to Banks for extending export credit is positive as this would hasten structural adjustment through higher exports, while improving systemic liquidity (by around Rs. 30,000 crore) and supporting the Rupee. Nevertheless, the efficacy of this measure remains to be seen.

ICRA expects the space available for further monetary easing to be limited to around 50-75 bps over the remainder of 2012-13. However the timing of future rate cuts would be influenced by growth-inflation dynamics, fiscal tightening measures and external events. In ICRA’s view, it is unlikely that the CRR would be reduced in the near term unless the crisis in the Eurozone intensifies further. The RBI is likely to conduct further OMOs at varying intervals to ease liquidity pressures and to sterilise the impact of further intervention in the foreign exchange market.

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