Trading Plan: Will Nifty 50, Bank Nifty enter a strong bullish momentum after US cuts tariffs on India?

Nifty Trading Plan for February 3 after India-US trade deal

• Expect Nifty 50 possibly to start with a big gap-up opening
• If Nifty sustains above 25,600–25,700, 26,000 can't be ruled out
• Support may shift higher to 25,450–25,400 zone

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The Nifty 50 is expected to continue its sharp upmove, possibly starting with a big gap-up opening after India struck a trade deal with the United States. Technically, if the index surpasses and sustains above the crucial resistance zone of 25,600–25,700 on February 3, the entry into bullish momentum could drive the index toward the psychological 26,000 zone in the upcoming sessions. In that case, support may shift higher to the 25,450–25,400 zone. Momentum indicators need to align with the rally, and India VIX needs to extend its decline sharply, which could give a major boost to Nifty 50 bulls. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty needs to surpass 59,450 to enter strong momentum, above which the 60,000 mark cannot be ruled out, while key support is seen at 58,200 (100-day EMA), experts said.

On February 2, the Nifty 50 surged 263 points (1.06 percent) to 25,088, while the Bank Nifty jumped 202 points (0.35 percent) to 58,619. Market breadth remained weak, as about 1,597 shares saw selling pressure compared to 1,312 shares that gained on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Arun Kumar Mantri, Founder of Mantri FinMart

The Nifty is expected to deliver one of its biggest positive reactions on Tuesday as the much-awaited US–India trade deal has been announced, with Gift Nifty indicating a big gap-up opening, further fuelling strong sentiment on the Street. Price action in the index in the last trading session was positive, with prices concluding near the day’s high above the 25,000 mark, led by gains in index heavyweights.

Massive short-covering is expected to fuel further momentum in the markets, as heavy short positions remain in the system over the past few days, with FIIs still holding large shorts in derivatives, especially in index futures.

Traders should closely observe the price-volume action of the index in the first hour of trade and assess whether gains are being sustained after the gap-up opening.

Key Resistance: 25,800, 25,850

Key Support: 24,950, 25,000

Strategy: Short-term traders should avoid chasing a massive gap-up opening in the Nifty and instead wait for confirmation in the first hour on whether gains are being held by market participants. Long traders should use the first-hour low as a stop-loss for the day and carry the expected positive momentum in the index.

Aditya Thukral, Founder & Analyst of AT Research & Risk Managers

From positioning in the derivatives segment, aggressive long build-up along with aggressive short-covering suggests that a strong reversal could be on the cards.

The formation of a piercing pattern, which is a reversal pattern, near important support zones provides early signs of a positive reversal, although the short-term trend for the Nifty 50 index remains negative.

A complete reversal in prices can be witnessed once prices start sustaining above 25,460, which is the lower high of the current fall. A strong close above 25,500 would further validate this reversal pattern. However, prices may consolidate around the 25,500 level even if a sharp reversal is seen.

Key Resistance: 25,450, 25,650

Key Support: 25,000, 24,800

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures above 25,400 or on dips around the same level in case of a gap-up opening, with a stop-loss at 25,300, targeting 25,700.

Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi

In the latest trading session, the Nifty staged a strong recovery from the day’s low, rebounding more than 250 points to close above the crucial 25,000 mark. This sharp turnaround highlights aggressive buying interest at lower levels.

From a technical standpoint, the index found solid support in the 24,700–24,800 zone, which coincides with a prior demand area formed in September 2025. This confluence strengthened the base for the rebound. On the daily chart, a bullish divergence in RSI is visible following an extended corrective phase, indicating weakening downside momentum and the possibility of a trend reversal.

Additionally, the Put–Call Ratio (PCR) recovered sharply to 0.95 after slipping to 0.44 intraday, suggesting improved sentiment and a more balanced derivatives setup.

Taken together, these technical and derivative indicators point toward a potential resumption of bullish momentum in the near term, provided the index sustains above key support levels.

Key Resistance: 25,400, 25,750

Key Support: 24,700, 24,600

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures in the 25,000–25,150 zone, with a stop-loss at 24,700, targeting 25,750.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Arun Kumar Mantri, Founder of Mantri FinMart

The Bank Nifty, which was one of the major culprits in the recent plunge, is also expected to witness a significant move in Tuesday’s trade, in line with broader market sentiment after the trade deal announcement. Data indicate that the index heavyweights, especially HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, which carry significant weight in the banking index, are extremely oversold.

The index has support around 58,200, while 59,500–59,800 will be the positional hurdle.

Key Resistance: 59,500, 59,800

Key Support: 58,100, 58,200

Strategy: The overall trend of the banking index remains positive, and buying on intraday declines could be a suitable strategy.

Aditya Thukral, Founder & Analyst of AT Research & Risk Managers

The short-term trend of the banking index appears sideways, as the index has been closing above and below the 20-day and 50-day EMAs over the past several sessions. However, the index has been able to absorb recent selling pressure and has continued to close above the 100-day and 200-day EMAs, with both EMAs sloping upward. Clearly, the medium- to long-term trend remains positive for the index, which explains the recurring rallies from support zones.

The 14-period RSI is currently hovering around the 40 level, providing comfort to buyers and offering a low-risk long entry into the index.

Key Resistance: 59,100, 60,000

Key Support: 58,200, 57,700

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures around current levels or above 59,000, with a stop-loss at 58,600, targeting 59,800.

Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi

In the latest trading session, the Bank Nifty witnessed a steady recovery from the day’s low, rebounding to close above the 58,600 mark. The move reflects selective buying interest in banking heavyweights following early weakness.

From a technical standpoint, the index found strong support in the 57,800–57,900 zone. This area coincides with a prior demand zone formed in November 2025 and aligns with the 100-DEMA, adding to its technical significance. Moreover, the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rally also lies within this range, reinforcing it as a crucial support cluster.

On the derivatives front, the Put–Call Ratio (PCR) improved to 0.83 after dipping to 0.75 intraday, indicating stabilising sentiment and a more balanced positioning setup.

Collectively, these technical and derivative indicators suggest the potential for a resumption of bullish momentum in the near term, provided the index sustains above the 57,800 support zone.

Key Resistance: 59,000, 59,200

Key Support: 58,200, 58,000

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures in the 58,700–58,800 zone, with a stop-loss at 58,350, targeting 59,500.