Trading Plan: Can the Nifty 50, Bank Nifty hold above Thursday's low?

Nifty Trading Plan for February 27

• Falling decisively below 25,400 support can take Nifty 50 down toward 25,250
• Suprassing above 25,600–25,650 zone can open door for 25,900–26,000
• Bank Nifty needs to break 60,800–61,500 range for firm direction on either side

Did our AI summary help?

The technical and momentum indicators consistently signal a lack of strength in the Nifty 50 amid ongoing consolidation. The index has been taking support at 25,400 on a closing basis since last week; hence, falling decisively below it can take the index down toward 25,250 (200-day EMA) in upcoming sessions. However, the 25,600–25,650 zone is acting as a hurdle, which needs to be convincingly surpassed for a move toward 25,900–26,000. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty has to break the 60,800–61,500 range for firm direction on either side; above it, a record high can't be ruled out, but below it, a fall toward 60,500 is possible, experts said.

On February 26, the Nifty 50 advanced 14 points to 25,497 after trading in the 25,573–25,401 range, while the Bank Nifty saw a 61,285–60,814 range before closing up 144 points at 61,188. Market breadth was almost equal. A total of 1,481 shares were supported by bulls, compared to 1,440 shares that declined on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivative Research Analyst at Samco Securities

Nifty formed a small-bodied candle on the daily chart, signalling hesitation as price action compresses near a critical inflection zone. The repeatedly defended 25,350 level now stands out as a decisive make-or-break pivot, highlighting strong demand absorption at lower levels.

Technically, the index remains capped below the 20- and 50-DEMA, keeping supply active near 25,600–25,650 (aligned with the 0.382 Fibonacci zone), while the 200-DEMA near 25,250 continues to provide structural support.

The RSI, around 47, reflects muted momentum. With the PCR (Put-Call Ratio) near 0.70 and aggressive Call writing at 25,500–25,600, rallies may invite selling unless 25,650 is decisively reclaimed.

Key Resistance: 25,600, 25,750, 25,850

Key Support: 25,350, 25,250, 25,150

Strategy: Traders may consider a Bear Call Spread for the March 2 expiry by selling one lot of the 25,300 CE at Rs 264 and buying one lot of the 25,550 CE at Rs 100. This setup is designed to capitalise on potential downside momentum.

Stop-Loss: Hold this strategy strictly, with the maximum Mark-to-Market (MTM) loss capped at Rs 5,586 to ensure disciplined risk management.

Target: Hold this strategy, aiming for a maximum Mark-to-Market (MTM) profit of Rs 10,663, while considering profit booking once MTM gains exceed Rs 6,000.

Jay Mehta, Technical Research at JM Financial Services

Nifty has been trading within a falling channel since February 4. Over the past 10 sessions, it has found repeated support in the 25,420–25,470 zone—even when it dipped below intraday, it recovered and closed above, establishing this as a critical short-term base.

The price remains below short- and medium-term moving averages but holds above the 200-day EMA (~25,240), which will act as immediate temporary support on any breakdown. Momentum and trend indicators point to a sideways to mildly bearish stance in the short to medium term. A strong, decisive close below 25,420 is needed for a confirmed breakdown; conversely, a decisive close above 25,940 would unlock meaningful upside toward all-time highs.

Key Resistance: 25,780, 25,850, 25,950

Key Support: 25,420, 25,320, 25,240

Strategy: Wait for a breakdown below 25,420 to initiate shorts targeting 25,240 and 25,010. If the price breaks above 25,780, start building longs and add more once 25,940 is taken out.

Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking

Technically, immediate resistance is located in the 25,800–25,850 range, while a strong support zone is established between 25,300 and 25,350. The daily RSI stands at 47.11, indicating neutral momentum with no dominant bullish or bearish bias. At the same time, India VIX declined by 3.15 percent to 13.06, suggesting reduced market fear and lower volatility expectations.

In the derivatives market, notable Put writing was seen at the 25,400 strike, while aggressive Call writing emerged at the 25,700 strike. As long as Nifty futures remain below the 25,700 level on a closing basis, a “sell on rise” strategy continues to remain technically valid, with a strict stop-loss placed at 25,800.

Key Resistance: 25,800, 25,850

Key Support: 25,300, 25,250

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures on a rise near the 25,700 level for a target of 25,300–25,250, with a stop-loss of 25,800 on a closing basis.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivative Research Analyst at Samco Securities

Nifty Bank is consolidating just below a crucial resistance band, reflecting controlled profit booking rather than structural weakness. The index continues to hold firmly above its rising 10- and 20-DEMA, preserving the higher-high, higher-low formation and keeping the medium-term bullish trend intact.

The 60,980–60,650 zone remains immediate support, with a stronger demand cushion near 60,500, while 61,400–61,700 stands out as a decisive breakout barrier; a sustained move above this zone could unlock momentum toward 62,000–62,300.

The RSI, around 58, signals steady strength without overbought conditions. Options data show aggressive Put writing at the 60,500 zone and Call build-up at 61,500–62,000, indicating a defined range with expansion likely on a breakout.

Key Resistance: 61,300, 61,500, 61,700

Key Support: 60,800, 60,650, 60,500

Strategy: Traders may consider initiating long positions on a throwback in Nifty Bank March Futures around the 61,200–61,250 zone, with a strict stop-loss at 60,950. Upside targets can be placed in the 61,550–61,600 range for profit booking.

Jay Mehta, Technical Research at JM Financial Services

Bank Nifty continues to trade above short- and medium-term moving averages and shows better relative strength than Nifty. It is currently stuck in a prominent range marked by mixed bullish and bearish candlestick patterns, defined as 60,400–61,770. A decisive breakout on either side will determine the next directional leg.

Momentum indicators have just begun to lose bullish strength (not significantly yet), suggesting sideways action is likely to persist. Trend indicators also reflect declining bullish momentum, with a dropping ADX reinforcing range-bound behaviour. Caution emerges if 60,400 breaks on the downside; a major breakdown requires a close below 59,850.

Key Resistance: 61,530, 61,770, 62,000

Key Support: 60,600, 60,400, 59,850

Strategy: Hold existing longs with a stop-loss at 60,400, targeting 61,770 and 62,000. Initiate fresh longs only above 61,770.

Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking

Thursday's price action resulted in the formation of a doji candle on the daily chart, indicating market indecision and a clear tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

From a technical standpoint, immediate resistance for the Bank Nifty is placed in the 61,800–62,000 zone, while the 61,100–61,000 band continues to act as a critical support area for near-term stability. The daily RSI at 58.43 reflects moderate bullish momentum with a positive bias. As long as Bank Nifty futures sustain above 61,100 on a closing basis, a selective buy-on-dips strategy remains valid, with a strict stop-loss placed at 61,000.

Key Resistance: 61,800, 62,000

Key Support: 61,100, 61,000

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips near the 61,500 level for a target of 61,800–62,000, with a stop-loss of 61,000 on a closing basis.