Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50 scale above 26,000, Bank Nifty rebound to 61,000?

Nifty Trading Plan for February 11

• Nifty 50 to continue its upward move toward the 26,000 zone
• Below 26,000, range-bound trading may continue with 25,800 acting as support
• Bank Nifty needs to hold 60,500 for a move toward the 61,000–61,500 levels

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Considering the momentum indicators that aligned with the market rally, moving averages trending higher, and the VIX making bulls comfortable, the Nifty 50 is expected to continue its upward move toward the 26,000 zone, as sustaining above it can open the door for 26,200 and a record high. Until then, below 26,000, range-bound trading may continue with 25,800 acting as support. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty needs to hold 60,500 for a move toward the 61,000–61,500 levels; however, falling decisively below it can bring consolidation, according to experts.

On February 10, the Nifty 50 rose 68 points (0.26 percent) to 25,935, while the Bank Nifty fell 43 points to 60,626. Market breadth was dominated by bulls. A total of 1,826 shares gained against 1,100 declining shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Ashish Kyal, CMT, Founder and CEO of Waves Strategy Advisors

Despite the weekly F&O expiry, the Nifty failed to show significant momentum in one direction, and stock-specific action was seen amid the ongoing quarterly result season. India VIX also dropped by more than 4 percent in the previous session, suggesting a reduction in anxiousness.

On the daily chart, after finding support near the middle Bollinger Bands, Nifty has been moving up gradually during this up move. Overall momentum has reduced, as the index has been trading with gaps over the past two sessions and has failed to show meaningful intraday follow-through. Prices are now approaching the upper Bollinger Bands placed near the 26,060 level. A decisive breakout above this level could lead to fresh buying.

The overall trend for Nifty remains buy-on-dips as long as the index holds above the key support of 25,728, with upside targets of 26,060 or higher.

Key Resistance: 26,060

Key Support: 25,728

Strategy: Long positions can be created if Nifty moves towards 25,870–25,890 and reverses on the 5-minute chart, with a stop-loss of 25,780 and targets of 25,970–26,060 levels.

Aditya Thukral, Founder & Analyst of AT Research & Risk Managers

Nifty 50 has now been seen consistently closing above all the major EMAs, i.e., the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day, over the past few trading sessions, with all the EMAs sloping upwards. Along with that, the continued formation of higher highs and higher lows suggests an intact uptrend in index prices. Despite the sideways market in Tuesday's trading, market breadth continued to improve mostly on all parameters, which is an encouraging sign for bulls.

On the derivatives front, aggressive writing in Call and Put options has been seen as the market approaches the psychological resistance of 26,000, which suggests limited immediate upside. However, the bias remains bullish as sellers do not appear confident, while buyers seem to be in control of the markets.

Key Resistance: 26,000, 26,200

Key Support: 25,780, 25,650

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips around 25,890 with a stop-loss of 25,790, targeting 26,100.

Preeti K Chabra, Founder of Trade Delta

On the daily timeframe, Nifty has formed a bullish candle and continues to maintain a higher high–higher low structure, reinforcing the ongoing uptrend. The index is trading comfortably above the 40-day EMA at 25,658 and the 20-day SMA (middle Bollinger Band) at 25,461, clearly indicating sustained bullish momentum.

On the upside, immediate resistance is placed at 26,000, followed by 26,200. On the downside, 25,814 acts as the first line of support, with the next support placed at 25,723.

The daily RSI at 57.5 is trading above its signal line, further supporting the bullish bias. On the weekly timeframe, Nifty continues to trend upward and is trading above the 20-day SMA (middle Bollinger Band) at 25,726, suggesting a positive medium-term outlook.

From a derivatives perspective, weekly options data indicates unwinding in in-the-money Call options, pointing towards strengthening bullish momentum.

Overall, the broader market structure remains bullish, and a buy-on-dips strategy appears favourable for the index.

Key Resistance: 26,000, 26,200

Key Support: 25,814, 25,723

Strategy: Consider buying Nifty Futures near 25,814 for a target of 26,000 followed by 26,200, with a stop-loss of 25,723.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Ashish Kyal, CMT, Founder and CEO of Waves Strategy Advisors

Bank Nifty opened the week on a strong note, supported by the interim trade deal announced with the US, which includes a reduction of reciprocal tariffs to 18 percent on several Indian goods. Post major events and market-moving triggers, the index is now entering a phase of caution. Among banks, PSU banks continued to outperform private sector banks, providing relative strength to the index.

On the daily chart, ADX has dropped below 25 and is now showing readings of 24, suggesting an overall reduction in volatility, which justifies the range-bound action happening in the index despite the positive undertone. For now, a decisive breakout above the 60,900 level is essential for fresh buying to emerge. A successful move beyond this resistance zone could pave the way for a rally towards the previous record high of 61,764 levels. Until then, the index may remain range-bound within the 60,500–60,900 levels.

A break below 60,500 can result in an attempt at gap filling. A break above 60,900 can result in a fresh course of buying.

Key Resistance: 61,700

Key Support: 60,500

Strategy: Long positions can be created above 60,900 with a stop-loss of 60,550 and targets of 61,250 followed by 61,500 levels.

Aditya Thukral, Founder & Analyst of AT Research & Risk Managers

After Monday’s gap-up, the banking index remained largely sideways, which is a natural phenomenon, and prices consolidating around the tops keep the buyers active, especially if the active trend has been positive. Prices are consistently closing above all the major EMAs — the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day — with all the EMAs sloping higher, and clear formations of higher highs and higher lows are imminent signals of an established uptrend.

As we have been witnessing sideways action over the past couple of trading days, a continuation of the uptrend is expected to emerge in the days to come, and the strategy remains buy-on-dips for Bank Nifty. A sideways to positive price action appears to be in play as positioning in the derivatives segment shows mild short covering by traders.

Key Resistances: 60,900, 61,400

Key Support: 60,300, 59,800

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips around 60,450 with a stop-loss of 60,150, targeting 60,900.

Preeti K Chabra, Founder of Trade Delta

Bank Nifty formed a bearish candle on the daily chart; however, it continues to trade above the 40-day EMA at 59,483 and the 20-day SMA (middle Bollinger Band) at 59,609, which indicates that the underlying trend remains bullish.

The index has retraced to the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement level at 60,677, measured from the November 7 low of 57,157 to the February 3 high of 61,764, making this level a crucial resistance to watch. A sustained close above this zone over the next few trading sessions would likely add further bullish momentum to Bank Nifty.

The daily RSI at 59.7 is trading above its signal line, supporting the positive bias. From a derivatives perspective, weekly options data indicates unwinding in in-the-money Call options, suggesting strengthening bullish sentiment.

Overall, the broader market structure remains bullish, and a buy-on-dips strategy remains advisable for the index.

Key Resistance: 60,797, 60,876

Key Support: 60,446, 60,233

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures near the cash reference level of 60,446 for an upside target of 60,797 followed by 60,876, while maintaining a stop-loss at 60,233.