Traders bet 73% odds the US Supreme Court declares Trump's tariffs illegal

US President Donald Trump

• US Supreme Court to rule on legality of Trump's tariffs today
• Only 27 percent of traders expect the Court to uphold Trump's tariff decision
• Ruling could set precedent for presidential powers over economic policy

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The US Supreme Court is expected to announce its decision on the legality of President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs later today, January 14. Majority of traders meanwhile are betting against the American apex court voting in favour of the tariffs.

According to Polymarket, which is a blockchain-based prediction platform, only 27 percent of the traders feel that the US Supreme Court would vote in favour of Trump's decision. The rest of the 73 percent are betting against it.

Supreme Court to rule on legality of Trump tariffs:

The case questions whether an American President can unilaterally impose such harsh tariffs citing national security or emergency powers, or whether such actions exceed statutory and constitutional limits. The Court’s full nine-member bench will hear the case, and the justices’ past rulings offer insight into their potential approach.

Today’s ruling will determine the fate of Trump’s tariffs and set a precedent for how future presidents, Republican or Democrat, can invoke emergency powers to shape economic policy. Analysts expect the decision to hinge on the Court’s interpretation of statutory authority versus presidential discretion, making this a landmark case in executive-legislative relations.

The ruling is expected to be delivered after 8 pm IST today.

Trump dismisses criticism:

Trump has dismissed the criticism around his decisions, calling his tariff policy the “strongest and fastest economic turnaround” in American history. Under our administration, growth is exploding, productivity is soaring, investment is booming, incomes are rising, inflation is defeated, and America is respected again. Just as I promised you, I've imposed a 25 percent tariff on all foreign automobiles,” he said.

“The actual numbers that we would have to pay back if, for any reason, the Supreme Court were to rule against the United States of America on Tariffs, would be many Hundreds of Billions of Dollars,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, adding that it would not include compensation sought by companies investing to avoid tariffs.

“In other words, if the Supreme Court rules against the United States of America on this National Security bonanza, WE’RE SCREWED!" he added.

Indian investors are also actively eyeing Supreme Court’s decision, as Sensex and Nifty faced pressure in 2025 amid Trump’s tariff flipflops. The almost muted annual returns in 2025 came as Trump increased tariffs on Indian exports to US to 50 percent, citing New Delhi’s continued purchase of Russian oil.

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