Technical View: Bears may get charge if Nifty decisively breaks 25,800, until then hope for 26,000 remains; Bank Nifty outperforms, holds 60,500

Nifty outlook for February 13

• 26,000 is expected to be immediate crucial resistance for Nifty 50
• Immediate support seen at 25,800
• Keep an eye on 60,000, the line in the sand for support

Did our AI summary help?

The Nifty 50 remained under pressure throughout the session and closed nearly six-tenths of a percent lower on February 12, snapping its four-day winning streak. However, it managed to defend the February 9 bullish gap on a closing basis. If the index decisively breaks the upper end of the bullish gap (25,700–25,780), selling pressure may widen toward 25,700–25,600. Until then, the hope for a move toward 26,000 remains alive, experts said.

Further, according to them, near-term consolidation may continue for a few more sessions before the bulls regain strong momentum.

The Nifty 50 opened lower at 25,907 (which was also the day’s high) and gradually extended its downtrend as the session progressed. The benchmark index fell 147 points (0.57 percent) to close at 25,807, forming a bearish candle with a lower shadow on the daily charts, indicating a short-term downward correction amid range-bound movement.

The index negated the higher high–higher low formation of the previous three consecutive sessions but stayed well above all key moving averages, with short-term moving averages trending northward. The RSI declined to 53.87 but sustained its bullish crossover. The MACD remained above the zero line with a positive bias, while the histogram showed fading positivity but still held above the zero line.

According to Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, the near-term trend of the Nifty remains positive.

"Present consolidation/downward correction could be short-lived and Nifty could bounce back from lower levels in the near term. Immediate support is placed around the 25,600 level," he said.

Weekly options data continued to suggest that 26,000 is expected to be immediate crucial resistance for the Nifty 50, with immediate support at 25,800. The maximum Call open interest was observed at the 26,000 strike, followed by the 25,900 and 26,100 strikes, with maximum Call writing at the 25,900, 25,800, and 26,000 strikes.

On the Put side, the 25,800 strike holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 25,500 and 25,700 strikes, with maximum Put writing at the 25,800, 25,550, and 25,300 strikes.

Meanwhile, the fear gauge, India VIX, climbed 1.54 percent to 11.73 but remained below the 12 zone as well as all key moving averages, which is still favourable for bulls who remain in a comfort zone.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty remained range-bound for the fourth straight session, especially after the gap-up trade on February 9, outperforming the benchmark Nifty 50. The banking index traded in around a 250-point range during the day before closing just 6 points lower at 60,740.

In fact, the index sustained near the upper Bollinger Bands while trading well above all key moving averages, which were all trending upward. Most notably, the index held above its previous record high of 60,437 over the last four sessions.

The momentum indicators also remained supportive, with the RSI holding around the 60 zone. The MACD maintained its bullish crossover, with the histogram holding above the zero line.

"Bank Nifty is cooling off near the highs — basically a healthy breather after the recent run. It’s holding steady above the previous breakout zone, which keeps the bullish setup alive for now," said Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

He advised watching 60,000 closely as the line in the sand for support. "If we clear 61,000 with volume, the next leg up begins. Support is placed at 60,000 and resistance at 61,000," he said.