Closing Bell: Nifty below 19,650, Sensex down 107 pts; power, realty outperform

Jatin Gedia – Technical Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas

The Nifty opened on a flat note and witnessed volatile price action. It drifted lower during the first half and witnessed a sharp recovery towards the close which helped it to close off the intraday lows though down ~14 points. On the daily charts, we can observe that the Nifty has closed in the negative for the second consecutive day. It has been trading in a downward-sloping channel and we expect it to consolidate within this channel. It can witness a bounce towards the key hourly moving averages placed in the range 19690 – 19720 from where we expect the selling pressure to resume. On the weekly charts, the Nifty has closed in the negative after rising for four consecutive weeks and which also suggests that the Nifty can consolidate. The momentum indicator has a negative crossover which is a sell signal and thus the pullbacks shall be difficult to sustain. Overall, the short-term outlook remains range bound between 19500 – 20000. Crucial support levels to keep handy are 19540 - 19500 and on the upside, 19700 - 19720 is the immediate hurdle zone.

Bank Nifty opened the gap down and witnessed a weak closing. Though it witnessed a pullback during the last hour of the session, however, the structure still points towards a short-term consolidation. On the weekly chart as well we can observe that the Bank Nifty traded within the range 44700 – 46370 of the penultimate week and thus formed an Inside Bar pattern which makes the extremes of the range crucial levels to watch out for in the short term. A breach of this range on either side shall lead to a move in that direction. Overall, we expect the Bank Nifty to consolidate between 46500 – 45000.

Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities

Nifty closed lower for the second straight day on July 28, pulled down by weak global cues and a series of muted Q1 results. At close, Nifty was down 0.07% or 13.9 points at 19646.1. Broad market indices ended in the positive even as the advance decline ratio remained firm at 1.08:1.

Global shares traded mixed on Friday as investors digested monetary policy steps/message from Japan. The Bank of Japan's policy shift could have seismic implications for global money flows, since a cheap yen that's been inexpensive to borrow has been a mainstay of capital market funding for years, and it now faces upward pressure from rising Japanese yields just as global rates seem to peak.

Nifty after falling in the early part of the session, recovered part of the losses on July 28 and formed a high wave doji pattern after a small fall. On weekly chart, Nifty fell 0.5% over the week after gaining for the previous four weeks. 19562 becomes a crucial support for the Nifty below which a fall of another 2% could follow and the 17-week rally from the low of 16828 could be said to have ended. 19748 could be a resistance for the near term.

Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services:

Nifty remained under pressure throughout the session but witnessed some recovery in the last hour to close with a marginal loss of 14 points at 19646 levels. Sectorially, it was mixed with major buying seen in Realty (+1.8%). Power stocks were in the limelight on the back of attractive valuations and huge investments in the sector.

Overall, we expect sectoral rotation in the market, while Index is likely to remain in the consolidation zone with the ongoing result season. Market will keep an eye on the manufacturing data to be released next week both - globally as well as locally. Also, the Bank of England will announce its rate decision next week on Thursday. Auto sector will be in focus as companies would announce their monthly sales numbers.

Sensex Today | Amol Athawale, Technical Analyst (VP), Kotak Securities

Weak European market cues and negative US futures kept the local market mood bearish for a major portion of the trading session. Profit taking in banking and IT stocks weighed on indices, although strong buying in realty shares helped markets pare losses. All eyes will now be on RBI's credit policy, as it would be interesting to see if the central bank also follows the US Fed and hikes interest rates, which could hurt growth prospects going ahead.

Technically, on intraday charts, the Nifty has formed a lower top formation, which is largely negative. For positional traders, the 20-day SMA or 19580 would act as a sacrosanct support zone. If the index succeeds to trade above the same, then it could bounce back till 19800. On further upside it could lift the market till 19900. On the flip side, a fresh sell off is possible only after the dismissal of 19580 and below the same it could slip till 19450-19400.

In the case of Bank Nifty, the 20-day SMA or 45250 could be the trend decider level, and above the same the index could move up till 45700-45900. On the other side, below 45250 it could slip till 44700-44500.

Sensex Today | Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services:

The better-than-expected US Q2 GDP data, though positive, hindered the mood of the domestic market as it signalled the chances of another rate hike. The Fed chief's comments about a data-centric approach without ruling out rate hikes added to the uncertainty.

Furthermore, the reversal of the buying trend by FII and the rise in US bond yields contributed to market volatility. However, Asian markets remained largely positive due to the BOJ's decision to retain the policy rate, contrary to speculation about the removal of stimulus measures.

Sensex Today | Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities

Both Nifty and Sensex lost around 1% in the past week. Mid-cap and small-cap indices outperformed the large-cap index. Macro sentiments remained volatile as frailties in European and US banks were under focus. Indian equity markets remained concerned about slowdown, higher interest rates and valuation even as inflation continued its downward trajectory both globally and domestically.

Sector-wise, capital goods (+4%), Pharma (+4.6%), Realty (+4.9%), Energy (+2.2%) and Metal (+2.6%) were the major gainers, while IT services (-1.5%) and FMCG (-1.9%) and Bank Nifty (-1.5%) were the major losers.

Within the Nifty Index, Cipla (+11.4%), NTPC (+6.6%) and Dr Reddy (+5.8%) gained the most, while Tech Mahindra (-9.1%), ITC (-5.0%) and BPCL (-4.4%) lost the most. Both, FPIs and DIIs were net buyers during the week.

On the economy front, the US Fed increased its Federal Funds rate by 25 bps, while suggesting that future rate trajectory will be data dependent. In International news, the U.S. economy showed few signs of recession in the second quarter, as gross domestic product at a 2.4% annualized rate for the April-through-June period, better than the 2% consensus estimate.

In Europe, French gross domestic product grew by 0.5% in the second quarter, national statistics showed, well above a forecast of 0.1% in a Reuter’s poll of economists.

In Asia, the Bank of Japan will continue to allow 10-year Japanese government bond yields to fluctuate in the range of around plus and minus 0.5 percentage points from its 0% target level.

Rupee Close:

Indian rupee closed 31 paise lower at 82.25 per dollar versus previous close of 81.94.

Market Close

: Benchmark indices ended lower for the second consecutive session on July 28 with Nifty below 19,650.

At close, the Sensex was down 106.62 points or 0.16% at 66,160.20, and the Nifty was down 13.90 points or 0.07% at 19,646. About 1774 shares advanced, 1641 shares declined, and 163 shares unchanged.

Bajaj Finserv, HDFC Bank, BPCL, Tata Motors and HCL Technologies are among the top losers on the Nifty, while gainers were NTPC, Power Grid Corporation, Apollo Hospitals, Adani Enterprises and M&M.

Among sectors, power and realty indices rose 2 percent each, while metal, capital goods and healthcare added 0.4 percent each. On the other hand, selling was seen in the banking, oil & gas and information technology names.

The BSE Midcap and Smallcap index added 0.5 percent each.

Vimta Labs Q1

Net profit was down 3.3 percent at Rs 11.6 crore versus Rs 12 crore, YoY
Revenue was up 4.4% at Rs 82.2 crore versus Rs 78.7 crore, YoY

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Satin Creditcare Network Q1:

Net profit was at RS 87.9 crore versus loss of RS 209.7 crore, YoY
Revenue was up 34.1% at Rs 462.3 crore versus Rs 344.8 crore, YoY

Sensex Today | Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas 

Indian Rupee fell on Friday on the strong US Dollar and weak domestic markets. The surge in crude oil prices further pressurized the domestic unit. US Dollar gained strong economic data from the US. The US economy expanded by 2.4% in Q2 2023 topping estimates of 1.8% and a reading of 2% in the previous forecast, raising hopes that the US may not slip into recession. Weekly unemployment claims were also lower than forecast. Other economic data from the US were also better than expected. This provided more room for US Federal Reserve to hike interest rates further. The dovish tone from ECB also strengthened the Dollar.

We expect Rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on risk aversion in global markets and rising interest rates by most major central banks. Strong Dollar and elevated crude oil prices may also put downside pressure on Rupee. However, FIIs remain as net buyers in July, which may support Rupee at lower levels. Traders may remain cautious ahead of the core PCE deflator index from the US. We expect the USDINR spot to trade in the range of 81.80 to 82.80 in the near term.

Sensex Today | Yatharth Hospital IPO closes today, subscribed 28.70 times

Yatharth Hospital & Trauma Care Services's IPO saw a healthy response from investors on July 28, the final day of bidding, as they applied for 47.41 crore equity shares, against the issue size of 1.65 crore shares, buying 28.70 times.

Retail investors bid 7.37 times the allotted quota, while high-networth individuals (non-institutional investors) bought 32.54 times the reserved portion.

The part set aside for qualified institutional buyers was subscribed 63.93 percent. Qualified institutional buyers have 50 percent reservation in the public issue, including anchor book, through which the company already raised Rs 206 crore on July 25, a day before the issue opening.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Jefferies On Indian Hotels 

-Buy rating, target at Rs 445 per share
-Revenue, PAT & EBITDA grew, but was 5-7 percent miss versus estimate on higher costs
-Stock may remain range bound in near-term
-Believe company is attractive to domestic macro tailwinds over medium to long term
-H2FY24 bodes well for space with occupancy boosting events

Sensex Today | Mohammed Imran, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas:

We expect short-term sluggishness in oil prices ahead as crude oil is up into the fifth consecutive week, while demand fundamentals are still not supportive the supplies are being sucked by the OPEC+ planned cuts of roughly 5% of global supplies. WTI moved 3.5% in the week and more than 13% in July. With a GDP of 2.4% in Q2, the US economy looks resilient, and the focus is once again switched to rate hike possibilities in future FOMS. The lack of clarity on Chinese stimulus will also see some correction in crude oil. Markets would be looking for next week’s OPEC+ meeting on August 4, for announcements on the continuation of voluntary output cuts.

We remain bullish on Crude oil for Q3 with average WTI prices expected to remain around USD 85. For the day we expect some profit booking which could see WTI testing support of USD 78, while resistance remains around USD 81.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Jefferies On Shriram Finance

-Buy rating, target at Rs 2,200 per share
-PAT of Rs 1,670 crore was 6 percent below estimate due to higher opex
-AUM grew 19 percent YoY, but NIMs fell due to lower yield & higher CoF
-Favourable used-CV outlook & growth in loan product should support CAGR over FY23-26
-Company should deliver 16 percent EPS CAGR & 15 percent RoE over FY24-26 lifting valuation

Sensex Today | Market at 3 PM

The Sensex was down 136.31 points or 0.21% at 66,130.51, and the Nifty was down 21.50 points or 0.11% at 19,638.40. About 1558 shares advanced, 1573 shares declined, and 135 shares unchanged.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Route Mobile Q1 Results

Net profit down 9.1% at Rs 92.4 crore versus Rs 102 crore, QoQ
Revenue down 4.1% at Rs 967.4 crore versus Rs 1,008.6 crore, QoQ

Stock Market LIVE Updates | 

PTC India Financial Q1 earnings

-Net Profit down 27.3% at Rs36.8 crore vs Rs50.6 crore (YoY)

-Revenue down 8.4% at Rs189.7 crore vs Rs207 crore (YoY)

Stock Market LIVE Updates | 

Advait Infra rose 8% after Rs 36 crore order win

Advait Infratech jumped over 8 percent after the company said it won an order worth Rs 35.81 crore for supply of 2784 KMs of Optical Fibre Ground Wire.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | 

Midhani bags order worth Rs178.54 crore

Indian Oil Corporation Q1 net profit at Rs 13,750.4 crore

Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Q1 net profit at Rs 352.7 crore

Stock Market LIVE Updates | NTPC to announce their June quarter earnings on July 29

Stock market LIVE Updates | HT Media Q1 earnings:

Net loss at RS 18.4 core versus loss Rs 34.5 crore, YoY
Revenue was down 6.4% at Rs 393.4 crore versus Rs 420.1 crore, YoY

Stock market LIVE Updates | Motilal Oswal Financial Services' promoters to donate equity shares

Motilal Oswal Financial Services has received an expression of interest/intent, from Mr. Motilal Oswal and Mr. Raamdeo Agarawal, Promoters of the Company along with their Family Members, committing to donate 5% Equity shares by each of them aggregating to 10% of total paid-up share capital of the Company, towards charitable purposes.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Rail Vikas Nigam bags order worth Rs 1088 crore 

Rail Vikas Nigam has received Letter of Award from Haryana Rail Infrastructure Development Corporation (HRIDC) of Rs 10,884,924,938.08.

Sensex Today | Market at 2 PM

The Sensex was down 290.93 points or 0.44% at 65,975.89, and the Nifty was down 71.80 points or 0.37% at 19,588.10. About 1549 shares advanced, 1570 shares declined, and 117 shares unchanged.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Motherson Sumi Wiring India Q1 results:

Net profit down 2.3% at Rs 123.1 crore versus Rs 126 crore, YoY
Revenue up 11.2% at Rs 1,858.8 crore versus Rs 1,670.9 crore, YoY

Sensex Today | Gold heads for weekly loss as US data, rate hikes drag

Gold prices clawed back from two-week lows on Friday after a strong U.S. economic data-driven sell-off in the previous session and an elevated interest rate environment drove bullion towards its biggest weekly decline in five weeks.

Spot gold was up 0.3% at $1,950.84 per ounce by 0657 GMT, after earlier hitting its lowest level since July 12. U.S. gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,949.80 per ounce.

Bullion has declined 0.5% so far in the week, heading for its biggest weekly fall since June 23 as the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank continued with another round of rate hikes this week, and left open the option of further hikes.

The Bank of Japan, meanwhile, made its yield curve control policy more flexible and loosened its defence of a long-term interest rate cap.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Exide Industries Q1 

Net profit up 10.7% at Rs 224.1 crore versus Rs 202 crore, YoY
Revenue up 5.6% at Rs 4,245.5 crore versus Rs 4,021.7 crore, YoY

Stock Market LIVE Updates | New Delhi Television posts Q1 net loss at Rs 8.1 crore, revenue falls 35%

New Delhi Television has posted consolidated net loss of Rs 8.1 crore for quarter ended June FY24, against profit of Rs 23.2 crore in corresponding period last fiscal. Revenue from operations fell 35% year-on-year to Rs 70 crore for the quarter due to lower advertising spends both on broadcasting and digital.

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Nomura View On BPCL

-Buy rating, target at Rs 455 per share
-Reported its strongest ever quarterly EBITDA in Q1FY24
-Refining outlook remains healthy
-Results underpinned by surge in marketing margin & strong refining margin
-Refining outlook remains robust, marketing thesis fading

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Morgan Stanley View On ACC

-Underweight rating, target at Rs 1,650 per share
-EBITDA higher than estimate led by volume & lower opex/t, realisations were weaker
-Cash position moved down slightly QoQ, EBITDA/t was at Rs 824 versus estimate of Rs 691
-Consolidated PAT came in at Rs 470 crore versus estimate of Rs 390 crore

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Supreme Industries Q1 Results

Net profit was up 1.3 percent at Rs 216.5 crore against Rs 214 crore, YoY
Revenue was up 7.4% at Rs 2,368.6 crore versus Rs 2,206 crore, YoY

Sensex Today | Yatharth Hospital IPO closes today, subscribed 10.76 times

Yatharth Hospital & Trauma Care Services's IPO saw a healthy response from investors on July 28, the final day of bidding, as they applied for 17.78 crore equity shares, against the issue size of 1.65 crore shares, buying 10.76 times.

Retail investors bid 5.62 times the allotted quota, while high-networth individuals (non-institutional investors) bought 18.65 times the reserved portion.

The part set aside for qualified institutional buyers was subscribed 13.92 percent. Qualified institutional buyers have 50 percent reservation in the public issue, including anchor book, through which the company already raised Rs 206 crore on July 25, a day before the issue opening. Read More

Stock Market LIVE Updates | Morgan Stanley View On Tata Consumer Products

-Overweight rating, target at Rs 933 per share
-Q1 earnings were in-line with our expectations
-Management was positive on its distribution & innovation led strategy to drive growth
-Tea business market share stabilising & salt market share not a concern yet

Sensex Today | Shibani Sircar Kurian, Senior EVP & Head- Equity Research, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management

Indian equities have been among the best performing regions in the world over the last 3 months supported by macro-economic parameters, corporate earnings and flows. Both FII and DII flows have supported the markets and FIIs have been net buyers of Indian equities to the tune of USD15 billion in CY23TD.

Globally, the US Fed raised the interest rate by 25bps to 5.25-5.50 % in its July meeting largely in-line with market expectations. The Fed Chairman however, left the door open for further rate hikes depending upon inflation and labour market conditions. In India, June CPI inflation rose to 4.8% versus 4.3% in May 2023 mainly due to rising food prices while core inflation moderated marginally by 9 bps to 5.12%.

The Indian rural economy is showing signs of improvement although in a gradual manner. The monsoon is now 7% above its long term average. Spatial distribution is improving and the kharif acreage is 1.2% higher than the same period last year (as of 21st July 2023).

So far, companies have reported in-line earnings growth for Q1FY24, led by margins expansion. Cement, Pharma and Banking sectors have delivered strong earnings while technology companies have reported muted outcomes. Nifty50 earnings growth estimates for FY24E and FY25E remain largely intact, with the consensus estimating mid to high teens growth.

With the markets trading at valuations ahead of long term averages, the key focus would be on the delivery of earnings. The other factors to watch out for include the monsoon progress, pick-up in consumer demand during the festive season and inflation print in India as well as globally.

Sensex Today | Market at 1 PM

The Sensex was down 269.79 points or 0.41% at 65,997.03, and the Nifty was down 61.40 points or 0.31% at 19,598.50. About 1622 shares advanced, 1469 shares declined, and 117 shares unchanged.

Indiabulls Housing Finance board approved raising up to Rs 35,000 crore via issue of NCDs and also approves final dividend of Rs 1.25 per share For FY23