Dalal Street This Week: Q3 earnings, US & China GDP data, Trump’s Davos speech among 10 key factors to watch

The primary market will see five new initial public offerings (IPOs) this week, including one from the mainboard segment.

• Market to see a sideways to cautious trade
• Market to focus on further corporate earnings & management commentaries
• All eyes also on geopolitical tensions, FIIs mood, economic releases (from US, China and Japan), updates related to India-US trade deal, the Trump's speech at Davos

Did our AI summary help?

The market closed flat for the week ended January 16, following a sharp 2.5 percent fall in the previous session. Optimism over renewed India-US trade discussions, Q3 earnings (especially IT and banks), and subdued oil prices supported market sentiment; however, prolonging geopolitical tensions, tariff concerns, and sharp FIIs selling capped upside.

Initially, in the current week starting from January 19, the market will first react to quarterly numbers announced by index heavyweights - Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank - after Friday's market hours, and on Saturday. Overall, the market is expected to see a sideways to cautious trade with focus on further corporate earnings & management commentaries, geopolitical tensions, FIIs mood, economic releases (from US, China, and Japan), updates related to India-US trade deal, and Trump's speech in the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum at Davos.

The Nifty 50 rose 11 points to close at 25,694, and the BSE Sensex declined 6 points to 83,570, while the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap 100 indices gained 0.2 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively.

"Markets are expected to trade sideways in the near term, with stock-specific action driven by earnings & trade-related developments while any geopolitical escalations will remain a key risk factor," Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services said.

According to Vinod Nair, the Head of Research at Geojit Investments, the market sentiment is likely to be shaped by key global macro indicators, including US PCE, GDP prints, and jobless claims data, which will offer cues on the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook.

"Domestically, PMI readings and progress in earnings season and management commentary will be closely watched for near-term direction for the market," he added.

Here are 10 key factors to watch out for this week:

Corporate Earnings

The December quarter earnings season will be in full swing as it enters into its second week, with more than 200 companies releasing their earnings scorecard during January 19-24. This includes Nifty 50 stocks like Dr Reddy's Laboratories, Eternal, Cipla, JSW Steel, Shriram Finance, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and UltraTech Cement.

Among others, IndusInd Bank, LTIMindtree, Punjab National Bank, InterGlobe Aviation, Urban Company, Bharat Heavy Electricals, Havells India, Hindustan Zinc, Tata Capital, AU Small Finance Bank, Gujarat Gas, ITC Hotels, United Spirits, Vikram Solar, Bank of India, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, Jindal Stainless, PNB Housing Finance, Tata Communications, Adani Energy Solutions, Bandhan Bank, Coforge, DLF, Indian Bank, Premier Energies, Syngene International, Zee Entertainment Enterprises, Godrej Consumer Products, and Multi Commodity Exchange of India will also announce their quarterly numbers this week.

US GDP

Globally, the participants across asset classes will focus on the final US GDP numbers for the July-September period of 2025. Most economists expect the US to grow 4 percent in the said quarter, against 3.8 percent growth in the previous quarter.

Apart from GDP, the Core PCE prices and real consumer spending data for Q3-2025, and weekly jobs data will also be watched. "Fed officials have already hinted they may pause rate cuts in January as the job market stabilizes and inflation stays sticky, so a hotter-than-expected inflation print could further push back expectations for March," Kaynat Chainwala of Kotak Securities said.

Global Economic Data

Further, the focus will also be on the inflation numbers from Euro zone, and China's final quarter GDP (Q4-2025, which is expected to be lower than the 4.8 percent growth seen in Q3) & monthly retail sales. Flash manufacturing and services PMIs from major global economies, including the US, Japan, as well as Euro Area, will also be closely watched.

The market participants will focus on the policy meeting of the Bank of Japan. The central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged.

Trump at Davos

Globally, all eyes will also be on President Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos for further policy signals. The World Economic Forum’s 56th annual meeting, themed “A Spirit of Dialogue,” will be held in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland, from January 19 to 23, 2026. The event will be attended by world leaders from government, business, civil society, international organizations, and academia.

According to the World Economic Forum, discussions will range from navigating geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty to harnessing innovation, with a focus on practical, solutions-oriented pathways that support resilience, competitiveness, and inclusive growth. These discussions will also include the responsible deployment of transformative technologies such as generative AI.

Domestic Economic Data

Back home, the focus will be on economic releases like HSBC Manufacturing and Services PMI flash numbers for January. Manufacturing PMI in December 2025 dropped to 55, from 56.6 in the previous month, while in the same period, services PMI also declined to 58, from 59.8.

On the same day, bank loan and deposit growth for the fortnight ending January 9, and foreign exchange reserves for the week ending January 16 will also be released.

FII Flow

Further, the mood at the foreign institutional investors (FIIs) desk will also be watched as they remained significant sellers for another week, partly due to the delay in the India-US trade deal and geopolitical tensions. They have net sold Rs 14,266 crore worth shares last week, taking the total current month's selling to over Rs 26,000 crore (as per provisional updates), which capped the market upside, but at the same time, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) provided strong support to the market.

DIIs net bought Rs 16,174 crore worth of shares during the last week and made more than Rs 34,000 crore buying in the current month.

Meanwhile, the Indian rupee consistently weakened for the fourth consecutive week, depreciating 0.5 percent to 90.662 against the US dollar after hitting an intraday low of 90.875, following weakness in the capital market and continued uncertainty over the India–US trade deal.

The US dollar index has been rising for the third straight week, though still below the 100 mark, rising 0.24 percent to reach a seven-week high of 99.375, supported by resilient economic data that lowered the possibility of near-term Fed rate cuts.

IPO

The primary market will see five new initial public offerings (IPOs) this week, including one from the mainboard segment. Logistics solution provider Shadowfax Technologies, the only company from the mainboard segment, will launch its Rs 1,907-crore IPO on January 20 with a price band of Rs 118-124 per share.

The other four companies - Digilogic Systems, KRM Ayurveda, Shayona Engineering, and Hannah Joseph Hospital - will be from the SME segment. Digilogic Systems' public issue will hit Dalal Street on January 20, followed by KRM Ayurveda on January 21, while Shayona Engineering and Hannah Joseph Hospital will launch their IPOs on January 22. Further, Aritas Vinyl will close its public issue for subscription on January 20, and Armour Security India's IPO will remain open till January 19.

Meanwhile, a total of nine new companies will be available for trading on the bourses this week, including two - Bharat Coking Coal (on January 19) and Amagi Media Labs (on January 21) from the mainboard segment. Defrail Technologies, Avana Electrosystems, Narmadesh Brass Industries, Indo SMC, GRE Renew Enertech, Armour Security India, and Aritas Vinyl shares from the SME segment will also be available for trading this week.

Technical View

Technically, the Nifty 50 is likely to be cautious with a consolidative bias as long as it trades within the 25,600-25,900 range. The momentum and technical indicators also signalled caution with a subdued short-term trend, while the formation of doji pattern on the daily and weekly charts indicated indecision among the market participants. Hence, the decisive close above 25,900 can open the door for a move toward 26,000 and beyond; however, falling sharply below 25,600 can bring the index toward 25,450, the crucial support, experts said.

F&O Cues

The weekly options data suggested that the Nifty 50 is expected to trade in the 25,500-26,000 range in the short term. On the Call side, the maximum open interest was placed at the 26,000, 25,800, and 25,900 strikes, with maximum Call writing at the 25,900, 26,100 and 25,800 strikes, while the 25,500 strike holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 25,700 and 25,600 strikes, with the maximum Put writing at the 25,500, 25,700 and 25,800 strikes.

Meanwhile, the India VIX, which measures expected market volatility, extended its uptrend for the third consecutive week, rising 4.1 percent to 11.37 and moving above its short-term moving averages, signalling caution for bulls. Any further increase in the VIX could put bulls at significant risk.

Corporate Action

Here are key corporate actions taking place this week:

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Disclaimer: MoneyControl is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the sole beneficiary.