Key events next week: UK, US & Eurozone PMIs; Fed minutes and more

Economic events from around the world next week. (Representative image. Source: Shutterstock)

The major economic releases scheduled next week are - the flash monthly purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) readings from major economies like the UK, the US and the Eurozone for the month of November, the minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s November meeting, the weekly initial jobless claims by the US, and China's Loan Prime Rate for 1 year and 5 years.

Also, in the upcoming week US weekly initial jobless claims data, and Japan's Manufacturing and Services PMI Flash data for November, will be released.

Let's take a look at the important economic events of the week beginning November 21, 2022:

Here's a schedule of the events:

November 21 (Monday)

Loan prime rates in China for November

China will announce Loan Prime Rate for 1 year and 5 years on November 21.

The China Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is the lending rate provided by commercial banks to their highest quality customers, and serves as the benchmark for rates provided for other loans. For the month of October, the country's central bank - The People's Bank of China - kept the one-year loan prime rate (LPR), which influences most new and outstanding loans, was kept at 3.65%; while the five-year rate, a reference for mortgages, was maintained at 4.3%.

The People's Bank of China is responsible for carrying out monetary policy and regulation of financial institutions in China.

(The LPR is calculated by the National Interbank Funding Center (NIFC), serving as the pricing reference for bank lending. Currently, the LPR consists of rates with two maturities, i.e. one year and over five years.)

November 22 (Tuesday)

Eurozone Consumer Confidence Flash for November

Every month, the Directorate-General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN) of the European Commission releases the flash Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for the EU and euro-area aggregates. November month's CCI will be pubished on Novmeber 22.

The consumer confidence indicator in the Euro Area edged up by 1.2 points to -27.6 in October of 2022 from September’s record low of -28.8. Consumer confidence in the European Union also rose (+0.7 points) to -29.0 from its record low of September.

The final Consumer Survey results are published as part of the full Business and Consumer Survey release at the end of the month.

November 23 (Wednesday)

Business surveys (PMIs) from the US, the UK and Eurozone

The flash monthly purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) readings from the UK, the US and the Eurozone for the month of November will be out on November 23.

The Flash PMI data are considered leading indicators of economic health. Eurozone economic contraction intensified in October.  The PMIs have registered below the neutral 50.0 level, indicating falling business activity levels.

Furo Eurozone composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), seen as a good guide to overall economic health, fell to 47.1 from 48.1 in September. Flash Eurozone Services PMI was at a 20-month low at 48.2 in October against 48.8 in Septepmber. Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI was at a 29-month low at 46.6 in October vs 48.4 in September.

The final composite PMI, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, for the euro zone, in the 19 countries using the euro, fell to a 23-month low of 47.3 in October from September's 48.1.

Flash UK PMI data for October signals increasing economic stress

For the UK, October's flash PMI data showed the pace of economic decline gathering momentum. Business activity fell for a third month running in October, according to the flash PMI survey data compiled by S&P Global and sponsored by CIPS. The rate of decline accelerated to the fastest since January 2021.

Flash UK Services PMI Business Activity Index was at 47.5 in October at a 21-month low against 50.0 in September. And, flash UK Manufacturing PMI was at a 29-month low at 45.8 vs 48.4 in September.

Flash US PMI into contraction territory in October

The October S&P Global flash PMI surveys present a picture of the economy at increased risk of contracting in the fourth quarter. The headline Flash US PMI Composite Output Index registered 47.3 in October, down from 49.5 in September.

The survey's flash manufacturing PMI fell to 49.9 in October, its first contractionary reading since June 2020, from 52.0 in September. The survey's flash services sector PMI fell to 46.6 from 49.3 in September.

(Anything below 50 indicates contraction; anything above 50 indicates sector expansion)

(The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an index of the prevailing direction of economic trends in the manufacturing and service sectors. The purpose of the PMI is to provide information about current and future business conditions to company decision makers, analysts, and investors.)

US weekly jobless claims (Up to November 19)

The US Labour Department will release data for the week ended November 19 on the number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance.

The number of Americans filing first-time unemployment claims for the week ended November 12 fell 4,000 to 222,000, according to the figures released on 17th November.

The US economy generated 261,000 jobs in October but the unemployment rate rose to 3.7%, from 3.5% in September.

US Fed minutes of November meeting

The Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release on November 23 the minutes of the Committee's policy meeting held on November 1-2, 2022. The Fed usually publishes the minutes of its meeting, three weeks after each policy meeting has taken place.

Investors and market observers have been awaiting minutes of the meeting for clues on the health of the economy, the Fed’s thinking on measures to combat high inflation, and the extent of future interest hikes.

The FOMC concluded its November 1-2 meeting by raising the federal funds rate by 75 basis points (bps), to a range of 3.75% to 4%.

The report of the minutes from the Fed’s November meeting could offer the committee's stance on monetary policy, give a hint on the latest decision to raise rates, and how officials expect to raise rates in upcoming meetings. It is also an assessment of economic and financial risks for sustaining economic growth. Clues regarding the policy outlook will provide to the markets whether the committee has a bullish tone or a dovish stance.

Economists were largely anticipating the US Fed to adopt a slower pace of rate hikes moving forward.

The final Fed meeting of 2022 will happen on December 13-14 with a rate decision announcement on December 14.

November 24 (Thursday)

Japan: Manufacturing and Services PMI Flash for November

Flash PMI data is published on a monthly basis approximately one week before final PMI data are released. The flash data is the earliest available indicator of private sector operating conditions in Japan. The estimates for the month of November will be released on November 24.

Japan's factory activity growth slowed further to a 21-month low in October.  The au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was at 48.7 in October, from the prior month's final 48.3. The headline figure marked the seventh month of weaker growth and the slowest expansion since January 2021. The au Jibun Bank Flash Services PMI Index expanded for a second month, rising to a seasonally adjusted 53.0 in October after September's 52.2 final, according to the survey. The au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Composite PMI, which is estimated by using both manufacturing and services, also accelerated, rising to 51.7 from the prior month's final 51.0, it showed.

Earnings watch

In the US, notable companies due to report include Zoom, Dell, Compass, Virgin Money, Jacobs Solutions, and Agilent Technologies (November 21); Best Buy, HP, Dollar Tree, Analog Devices, Abercrombie & Fitch, Dollar Tree, HP, Best Buy, American Eagle, Burlington, and Nordstrom. (November 22); Deere & Co. (November 23). Kingfisher, Dr Martens (November 24) will all be of interest to UK equity markets. In India, major businesses like Siemens (November 22); HDIL (November 24) will report their earnings.

Five IPOs to get listed

Shares of Archean Chemical Industries and Five Star Business Finance will list on the stock exchanges (November 21); Kaynes Technology may list on November 22; Inox Green Energy Services may list on November 23; and Keystone Realtors listing likely on November 24