MC EXCLUSIVE India‑US trade deal key for rupee, investors may reassess stance after conclusion of talks: CEA

CEA V Anantha Nageswaran.

India’s chief economic adviser V Anantha Nageswaran said the resolution of a trade deal between India and the United States has been an important factor for the rupee in the minds of investors, based on feedback from them.

"Obviously, it, (India US trade deal resolution), has been an important factor (for the rupee) in the minds of investors, we believe, based on what we hear from different investors. As and when it gets resolved, they will naturally reassess their stance towards the Indian market," Nageswaran told Moneycontrol in an interview.

His comments come at a time when the Indian rupee fell to a record low of around Rs 91.98 against the US dollar on January 30, concluding its worst monthly decline since September 2022.

CEA Nageswaran says capital gains taxes can still be re-examined

The currency slid about 2.3 percent in January 2026, pressured by persistent foreign investor outflows and strong corporate dollar demand

Negotiations for a trade deal between India and the United States, expected to conclude this year, could help reduce uncertainty on India’s external front, the Economic Survey for 2025–26 said on January 29.

India and the United States have concluded six rounds of talks for a trade deal so far.

Both nations have reaffirmed their commitment to continue dialogue with the aim of reaching an early conclusion of a mutually beneficial agreement.

The recent US decision to exempt over 200 agricultural and food products from elevated tariffs marks a constructive shift in India–US trade dynamics. The move restores price competitiveness for key Indian exports, including spices, tea, coffee, nuts, and processed foods, helping offset earlier tariff pressures that had constrained market access, the Survey noted.

The Survey added that slower growth in key trading partners, tariff-induced trade disruptions, and volatility in capital flows could intermittently weigh on exports and investor sentiment.

However, for India, these global conditions translate into external uncertainties rather than immediate macroeconomic stress.