India’s Russian oil imports to fall to lowest since May 2022 in March, Saudi regains share

India’s Russian oil imports to fall to lowest since May 2022 in March, Saudi regains share

• India's Russian oil imports to fall to 800,000 bpd in March
• Saudi Arabia regains top supplier spot with record imports
• China increases Russian oil imports as India cuts purchases

Did our AI summary help?

India’s import of Russian oil is expected to fall to 800,000 barrels per day in March, its lowest level since May 2022 with Saudi Arabia regaining its share in India’s oil import basket, preliminary data from data and analytics firm Kpler shows.

Russia’s oil imports to India are tracking at 1.3 million barrels per day in February, with imports from Saudi Arabia touching an all-time high of 1.26 mbd so far in February, the data showed. In January, India imported 1.2 million bpd of Russian barrels and 774,000 bpd of oil from Saudi Arabia.

Over the past few months, India has already cut down its purchases of Russian oil significantly to the range of 1.1-1.3 million barrels per day during Dec-Jan from 1.8 million bpd in November 2025, as per Kpler data. While Russian volumes could soften further following the announcement of the US–India trade deal, a complete halt looks unlikely at the moment, analysts at Kpler said.

The US reduced the reciprocal tariffs on India to 18% from 50% while withdrawing the 25% additional penalty imposed for India’s purchases of Russian oil. The US said that India has committed to stop buying Russian oil and increase its energy imports from the US and Venezuela. The Indian government, however, has not formally committed to such a shift.

“February numbers may appear slightly lower due to timing, as some end-month cargoes discharge in the following month,” said Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst, refining and modeling at Kpler.

Reliance Industries, which has stopped its imports of Russian oil, has resumed purchases, sourcing from non-sanctioned sellers, with five Urals cargoes discharging into Jamnagar month-to-date with 242,000 bpd of oil. However, this remains well below the 2025 average of 575,000 bpd, as per Kpler.

Ritolia noted that imports could also dip in April as Nayara Energy’s Vadinar refinery, which relies heavily on Russian crude, is scheduled for maintenance in April–May.

“Overall, we expect Russian flows to gradually decline in the medium term rather than stop completely. February month-to-date data already shows Saudi Arabia regaining its position as India’s top supplier, with imports tracking at a new all-time high,” Ritolia said.

Saudi Arabia has traditionally been a top supplier to India particularly before the Russia-Ukraine conflict after which Russia became the top exporter of oil to India owing to heavy discounts on its Urals from 2022.

Kpler now expects Saudi crude imports to average a new all-time high of 1.15 million bpd in February as India attempts to move away from Russian oil.

“The immediate natural replacement for Russian barrels has come from the Middle East. Our predictive flows model indicates Saudi crude imports are on track to average 1.15 mbd in February, a new all-time high and well above the previous peak of 1.03 mbd in November 2019,” Ritolia said.

Imports from the United Arab Emirates in February so far have also surpassed January levels of 395,000 bpd and are tracking at 490,000 bpd. India’s purchases of oil from the US presently stands at 234,000 bpd against 296,000 bpd for the entire January.

Further reduction in official selling prices (OSPs) for the Asian market will trigger more buying for March-loading cargoes, Ritolia pointed out, although Chinese competition will be fierce with Chinese nominations for Saudi having reached their highest level in three years.

China has already ramped up its purchases of Russian oil as New Delhi aims at slashing its exposure to the discounted Urals, an analysis of Kpler data shows. China’s import of Russian oil is expected to rise for the third straight month in February with imports from Moscow already tracking at 2.08 million bpd including increased purchases of grades like ESPO, Sokol, and Varandey. In January, China’s imports of Russian oil stood at 1.71 million bpd.