Indiabulls Real Estate Q1 PAT seen up 45% to Rs 30 cr

Indiabulls Real Estate (IBREL) is expected to report a 45% rise in its first quarter FY12 profit after tax of Rs 30 crore against Rs 21 crore in the year ago period. Net profit is likely to go up 28% quarter-on-quarter from Rs 23 crore in Q4FY11.

Net sales are seen going up 168.5% to Rs 461 crore from Rs 172 crore year-on-year while sales are expected to fall 17.8% quarter-on-quarter from Rs 561 crore in Q4FY11.

EBITDA is likely to go up 337% to Rs 95 crore from Rs 22 crore year-on-year while it is seen going down just 2% quarter-on-quarter from Rs 97 crore in Q4FY11.

EBITDA margin is expected to improve drastically at 20.5% versus 12.7% in the year ago period.

Factors:

IBREL expected to witness a drop in revenues sequentially due to lumpy revenue recognition

Could See an Impact of Slowdown in sales over the last quarters especially in South Mumbai area

10-15% increase in construction costs

Lower rentals for Elphinstone Mills --- around Rs 125/sqft/mnth

Do not expect any improvement in average rentals

Expect some improvement in EBITDA margin from 4QFY11 on the assumption of higher contribution from the Panvel project QoQ

Key Monitorables:

Area leased in Jupiter and Elphinstone is expected to show an uptrend given that all office buildings have been completed

Contribution from Panvel projects