Thermax Q4 PAT seen down 9% at Rs 115 cr

Thermax, an engineering solutions provider to the energy and environment sectors, is expected to report a profit after tax at Rs 115 crore for the fourth quarter of FY12, a fall of 9% as compared to Rs 126 crore in a year ago period, according to CNBC-TV18 poll.

Total income too is seen going down by 11% to Rs 1,575 crore from Rs 1,771 crore year-on-year.

EBITDA is likely to decline 12% to Rs 172 crore for the January-March quarter of 2012 versus Rs 195 crore in the corresponding quarter of last fiscal.

Operating profit margin is expected to be at 10.92% versus 11.02% during the same period.

Q4FY12 Expectations

Analysts on average expect yet another quarter of subdued performance due to high base effect from last year

Revenues are expected to decline YoY led by both energy and environmental segments
* Expect execution to remain slow during the quarter due to low order carry
* Weak order inflows in the last few quarters will keep revenue growth under strict check
* Persistently declining order book and no major order inflows in Q4 aggravating revenue visibility concerns

EBITDA margins are expected to show improvement YoY despite decline in sales due to favourable revenue mix
* Further positive surprise possible on the margin front due to decline in raw material costs vis-à-vis Q4FY11

Order inflows and order book

Despite having good enquiries, order finalization is taking long due to macro concerns such as high interest cost environment and inflation

Consolidated order book at the end of Q3FY12 stood at Rs 5,809 crore versus Rs 7,154 crore in Q3FY11

Standalone order backlog at the end of Q3FY12 at Rs 5,104 crore versus Rs 6,353 crore last year

Company is in the process of registering itself as a worldwide supplier of HRSG (heat recovery system generators) to Siemens
*** This would open up a large market for its products

Key factors to watch out for –

Order inflows from the power segment, especially boiler turbine generator orders for which company is in the process of setting up a 4500MW capacity in consortium with Babcock-Wilcox

Ordering activity in the renewable energy segment