ICICI Securities's research report on Travel Food Services
TFS’ Q3FY26 performance surpassed expectations. The beat was driven by recovery in passenger traffic following disruptions in H1 due to geopolitical tensions and aircraft maintenance issues. Passenger traffic improved, registering a 1.6% YoY increase, led by festive and travel demand. System sales revenue during Q3FY26 grew 28% YoY, supported by the commencement of operations at Delhi T2 and Navi Mumbai airports. Profitability improved with EBITDA margins expanding by 137bps YoY, driven by operating leverage. Profit from JVs increased materially with the mobilisation of units in the Adani JV, driving PAT growth of ~36% YoY. Cash flow generation remains healthy, with cash on the books at INR 7.9bn as of Dec'25. We expect the strong momentum to be sustained, led by scale-up at existing airports, mobilisation at Kochi domestic airport, and the upcoming launch of the Noida airport. Maintain BUY.
Outlook
We broadly maintain our estimates and model consol. revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGRs of 6%/12%/15% over FY25–28E on the back of new incremental concessions at new and existing airports, rising passenger traffic, and increasing sales per pax. We maintain BUY and our TP of INR 1,600, based on 42x Sep’27E EPS.
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