Jharkhand Exit Polls: Pollsters divided on a clear mandate, four favour BJP+; three INDIA bloc

The BJP has approached tribal identity from a different angle, and promoted a campaign which projects the population changes and law and order situation in terms of “Bangladeshi infiltration,” a code for Muslims.

The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-led INDIA alliance are locked in a tight contest in Jharkhand, according to Poll of Polls. While four pollsters have given a clear edge to BJP-led National Democratic Alliance, three pollsters have predicted a clear-cut victory for JMM-led INDIA bloc.

The 81-seat Jharkhand Assembly voted in two phases on November 13 and 20, with the results to be announced on November 23. No single party has been able to win a majority on its own in previous assembly elections.

The NDA is predicted to win 42-47 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) may get 25-30 seats in the 81-seat assembly, according to an exit poll by Matrize. Another exit poll by Peoples Pulse forecast the NDA winning 44-53 seats, giving 25-37 seats to the INDIA bloc.

The exit poll by Times Now-JVC predicted 40-44 seats for the NDA, and 30-40 for the Grand Alliance. The Axis My India exit poll gave the JMM-led alliance 53 seats and the NDA 25 seats.

Electoral Edge predicted 32 seats for NDA and gave 42 seats to INDIA alliance. Chanakya strategies predicted 45-50 seats for the NDA, and 35-38 seats for INDIA alliance.

Jharkhand sees the ruling JMM-led INDIA bloc striving to retain power against the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which aims to dislodge the Soren government.

The just-concluded two-phased voting in saw a fierce battle between INDIA bloc constituents and BJP in Jharkhand.

The 81-seat Jharkhand Assembly voted in two phases on November 13 and 20, with the results to be announced on November 23. No single party has been able to win a majority on its own in previous assembly elections.

Earlier today, BJP state president Babulal Marandi exuded confidence saying that the BJP-NDA alliance will secure more than 51 seats in the polls and form the government as the people were discontented with the ruling Hemant Soren led-JMM party in the state.

Jharkhand sees the ruling JMM-led INDIA bloc striving to retain power against the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which aims to dislodge the Soren government.

In the 2019 Jharkhand election, the JMM-Congress-RJD alliance won 47 out of 81 seats and the JMM emerged as the single largest party with 30 seats. The BJP had to settle for only 25 seats, despite securing the highest vote share among parties.

The state, which has a significant tribal population, has 44 out of 81 Assembly seats open to all candidates, while 28 are reserved for Scheduled Tribes and nine for Scheduled Castes.

The INDIA group is trying to consolidate its tribal base, and is seeking the support of other sections of voters on the basis of the welfare schemes the state government has implemented.

The BJP has approached tribal identity from a different angle, and promoted a campaign which projects the population changes and law and order situation in terms of “Bangladeshi infiltration,” a code for Muslims. Modi and other BJP leaders have raised the pitch of their campaign with warnings about the state losing its identity to “infiltrators.”