Sanjay Kumar

POLITICS

Three reasons why 2024 is not like the 2004 elections

Those arguing that AB Vajpayee’s surprise defeat in 2004 could be replayed in 2024 are on weak ground. One, Congress has shrunk from 2004 and BJP has expanded, secondly PM Modi’s popularity is of a different order than then PM Vajpayee’s, and finally today’s nationalism and “sabka vikas” narrative is working better than in 2004

POLITICS

NDA and INDIA: One stronger in Lok Sabha, the other in assemblies

Who is ahead at the moment? The only numbers giving a sense of present strengths are the vote shares and seat counts of individual parties of the alliance in the Lok Sabha and legislative assemblies. In Lok Sabha it is BJP by a distance, while the tables turn in assemblies. One big question lingers: Is there a swinging voter in national elections?

BUSINESS

Bengal Panchayat Polls: TMC’s big win no indication of its 2024 prospects

Voters are making clear distinctions between panchayat, assembly and Lok Sabha polls. The state’s ruling party has an advantage in panchayats. In 2014 and 2019, BJP did better in Lok Sabha polls in Bengal than the panchayat elections which preceded and the assembly polls which followed. So the battle for 2024 has just begun and is far from over

BUSINESS

Despite Patna start, seat sharing and Index Of Opposition Unity will trouble the incipient coalition

Deciding the basis for seat sharing – previous Lok Sabha or assembly poll performance – isn’t easy. Each party would prefer the seat sharing benchmark that suits it. Similarly, Index of Opposition Unity will be dented if parties like BSP are excluded from the alliance or if there are friendly fights

ASSEMBLY-ELECTIONS

Rajasthan: Will it be a change of government or a change of tradition?

Rajasthan’s history of voting out the incumbent government weighs against Congress, which is betting big on welfare schemes to keep the poorer sections happy. BJP, stung in Karnataka, appears to be leaning towards ex-CM Vasundhara Raje to lead the party campaign

POLITICS

Bihar: BJP focuses on non-Yadav-Kurmi-Muslim voters to blunt the Mahagathbandan’s 2024 plans

A repeat of the RJD-JDU-Congress’s 2015 election victory in 2024 is BJP's big fear in Bihar. But it is a Lok Sabha election and the Modi factor matters for voters. Moreover, BJP is assiduously cultivating caste groups distinct from its rival's social coalition for a reverse polarisation, similar to what stumped SP-BSP in UP in 2019

ASSEMBLY-ELECTIONS

Karnataka Verdict: Don’t conflate politics and elections. One election does not set trends for another state or the whole country

Karnataka poll outcomes were determined by local factors and that holds true for the next round of state elections. As for 2024, people, clearly, vote differently in state and national elections. Even the epitaphs on BJP’s southern foray and JD(S)’s imminent collapse are premature. Politics is a long-range game unlike elections

ASSEMBLY-ELECTIONS

Karnataka Elections: Some questions about the exit poll process

Karnataka Elections 2023: Most exit pollsters who wagered their numbers yesterday did not share vote share estimates on which they based their calculation or their sampling methodology and other details. This lack of transparency in exit polls makes the calculation of seat numbers a dubious proposition

ASSEMBLY-ELECTIONS

Karnataka Elections: It’s 'national versus local' as BJP and Congress play to their respective strengths

Karnataka Elections 2023: BJP believes its success in defending incumbent governments suggest the mood of India’s voters favour it, and hence the “national” feel to BJP’s campaign. Congress is pinning its hopes on Karnataka’s track record of booting out incumbents and therefore projecting local issues and leadership

BUSINESS

Opposition Unity: Zero chemistry between opposition leaders defeats all the non-BJP vote share calculations

Unless opposition parties are able to come together by speaking in one voice and representing positive ideas, they won’t make headway with voters. Further, only a high degree of dissatisfaction with the ruling government works in favour of opposition unity, which doesn’t appear to be the case now

POLITICS

Karnataka Elections: Its support scattered across regions and communities, can Congress turn this to its advantage?

Karnataka Elections 2023: Unlike elsewhere, Congress has held on to its support base in the state, evident from its consistently higher voteshare, even in losing causes. Congress only has to improve its votes-to-seats conversion from 2018.  So even a minor swing towards it will help GOP

POLITICS

How women voters became front and centre of the electoral outreach by political parties

Take any recent election manifesto and notice how the promises made to women voters are the most eye-catching. The reason for this is two big transformations in Indian elections over the last decade: Women voters outperforming males in turnout and more women taking independent voting decisions

BUSINESS

Old Pension Scheme not a gamechanger for 2023 assembly polls or 2024 Lok Sabha elections

The Himachal Pradesh electoral verdict appears to have created a buzz in political circles about the Old Pension Scheme. If Congress or any party thinks it has found its silver bullet in OPS it is mistaken.