Rajat Bose, Research Analyst at rajatkbose.comMarket Outlook for August 22, 2016 Nifty (8666.90): The expectation for the Nifty taking out the critical 8740 – 50 range has been belied on last Friday; on the contrary, in the August series, the bears came back with renewed vigor to write nearly 1 million unit of 8800-strike calls while the bulls retreated from the 8600-strike puts by covering 537600 calls buy compensated that by writing 617025 units of 8500-strike puts. With the hawkish comment by the US FED officials and weakness in global markets, it appears that it is rather unlikely that the Nifty would be able to get past 8695 – 8710 range, and there could be supply pressure even around the 8650-index level. On the downside, once the significant support zone between 8653 and 8633 gets taken out, expect an attempt to retest the 8600-mark. Interest rate sensitives may suffer some selling pressure in early session. Trade recommendation:Sell Nifty if it were to stay below the 8665-mark with a stop loss above 8710; add more once the 8633-level gets taken out and bring down the stop loss to 8667, and your next target would be 8610 – 8590 and 8563. Bank Nifty (19414.70): The index suggests indecision and indicates some degree of tiredness among the bulls—this was quite in line with the technical indications. The range between 19365 and 19470 would, in any case, have acted as a strong supply zone that was unlikely to be taken out at one go. Now, expect some retracement swing happening in the day’s session once the 19255-mark is taken out on high volume selling in bank stocks. It could once again get into that erstwhile range between 19200 and 18800. Trade recommendation: Sell Bank Nifty, once it falls below 19350, with a stop loss above 19500; targets are 19190, 19060 and 18995. Stock recommendation: State Bank of India (258): Buy on declines up to Rs 253.50 with stop loss below Rs 248; targets Rs 259, Rs 262 and Rs 264. Cipla (556.80): Buy with a stop loss below Rs 547.75; targets Rs 564, 571 and Rs 575. Statutory disclosure: The analyst and his associate has none of the above. Their respective families, however, do not hold any shares either jointly or separately in any of the stocks mentioned above.
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