Geojit Comtrade`s view on Pepper, Jeera, Turmeric

Geojit Comtrade has come out with its report on Pepper, Jeera and Turmeric.

Pepper futures hit record high following overall positive fundamental factors. Prices are expected to rise further due to supply constraints. Arrivals of fresh crop in spot markets on an average have declined to around 6 tonnes compared with near 12 tonnes a month ago. Delay in fresh crop arrivals from Vietnam, the largest producer of the spice, is also supporting prices. Price for black pepper in Singapore Mercantile Exchange also rose from previous day to around $6770 per tonne, but below Indian variety. Indian parity shot up in international markets to around $8600 per tonne for US and $8300 per tonne for Europe. If the current trend continues the Indian parity may lose its competitive edge over other origins.

Jeera prices may fall on prospect of higher output for current season and rising daily arrivals in spot markets. However, good demand from the domestic and oveseas buyers for the new crop may support the prices. Availability of Indian jeera at a competitive rate and political unrest in other major jeera producing countries may raise the export demand. Last day, jeera arrivals in Unjha were around 14000 bags. Of the total arrivals, 1000 bags were from the old crop, and the remaining from the new crop. Prices of the new and old crop were around Rs.14000 and Rs.14200 per 100 kg, respectively.

Turmeric futures may fall following the trend in spot markets. Rising daily arrivals and report of huge stocks with the growers are adding bearish cues to the market sentiments. Currently the growers are selling their new crop at rate existing in the spot market on higher stocks estimates. The stocks are projected to be higher this year due to better output and higher acreage. According to a report in Business Line, within last two months, about 2 lakh bags of new crop, mainly the Number 8 variety, arrived for sales in Erode markets. About 75 per cent of the arrivals were sold to Chhattisgarh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh. Thus good demand by the north Indian buyers might cushion the prices.

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