Will Keir Starmer survive the Mandelson-Epstein scandal? What options UK PM has as Labour unrest grows

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer - File Photo

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces a major crisis over Peter Mandelson’s links to Jeffrey Epstein. Mandelson’s appointment and leaked emails have triggered resignations and calls for Starmer to step down, with leadership challenges and elections looming.

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British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing the most serious political crisis of his premiership as fresh revelations about the links between veteran Labour figure Peter Mandelson and disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein continue to reverberate through Westminster.

The controversy centres on Starmer’s decision to appoint Mandelson as the UK ambassador to the United States, despite Mandelson’s past association with Epstein. While Starmer removed Mandelson from the post in September after emails showed he remained friendly with Epstein even after the latter’s conviction for sex offences involving a minor, newly released documents have intensified the fallout.

Emails published by the US Justice Department indicate that Mandelson passed on sensitive political information to Epstein in 2009, when he was serving as a member of the Labour Cabinet. The disclosures have prompted anger within Labour and raised serious questions about Starmer’s judgment.

Pressure mounts inside Labour

The scandal has triggered open dissent within the Labour Party. Some senior figures have publicly questioned whether Starmer should continue as Prime Minister, arguing that the resignations around him do not go far enough.

Starmer’s Chief of Staff resigned on Sunday, taking responsibility for the Mandelson appointment. The Prime Minister’s communications director stepped down a day later. Starmer himself has apologised to the British public and to victims of Epstein’s sex trafficking, saying he had believed what he called “Mandelson’s lies.”

Despite the damage, Starmer has made clear he does not intend to step aside immediately and is seeking to rally party support.

Option one: A voluntary resignation

One path forward would be a voluntary resignation by Starmer.

Such a move could come if senior Cabinet ministers conclude that he has lost the confidence of the party or if resignations begin to cascade. A resignation would trigger a Labour leadership contest, a process that typically takes weeks.

Potential contenders frequently mentioned include Health Secretary Wes Streeting, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, and former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, who resigned last year after admitting she had underpaid tax on a property purchase. An investigation into that matter is ongoing.

Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Manchester, is often cited as a popular figure but would not be eligible unless he returned to Parliament, as convention requires the Prime Minister to be an MP.

If Starmer stepped down immediately, Labour’s governing bodies and the Cabinet would likely appoint an interim Prime Minister, possibly someone not contesting the leadership. Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy is seen as a possible caretaker choice.

Under Labour rules, leadership candidates must secure the backing of at least one fifth of Labour MPs, around 80 lawmakers. Party members would then vote, and King Charles III would formally invite the winner to form a government.

Option two: A leadership challenge

If Starmer refuses to resign, he could face a leadership challenge.

Unlike the Conservative Party, which has previously forced out leaders such as Margaret Thatcher in 1990 and Boris Johnson in 2022, Labour has little history of removing sitting prime ministers. No Labour Prime Minister has ever been formally dislodged, though Tony Blair announced his resignation plan in 2007 after mounting internal pressure.

Any challenger would need to meet the nomination threshold, while Starmer would automatically appear on the ballot.

Key tests ahead

Several looming events could determine Starmer’s fate.

One major moment will come when documents related to the vetting of Mandelson are published. Starmer will hope they demonstrate the extent to which Mandelson misled him. If they do not, Labour insiders warn that his position could become untenable.

Electoral tests are also approaching. A special election in Gorton and Denton on February 26, traditionally a safe Labour seat, is expected to be fiercely contested, with challenges from Reform UK on the right and the Greens on the left.

Beyond that, elections in May could prove bruising. Labour fears it could lose power in Wales for the first time since devolution in 1999, underperform in Scotland, and suffer heavy losses in English local elections.

A precarious premiership

For now, Starmer remains in office, but the political terrain is increasingly unstable. Much will depend on how damaging the Mandelson vetting revelations prove to be and whether electoral setbacks accelerate internal revolt.

As former Conservative Prime Minister Harold Macmillan once famously said when asked what most threatened a leader: “Events, dear boy, events.”