Wheat crisis brewing in Pakistan? Indus Waters Treaty strain and Afghan conflict collide as supply dips

USDA projects over 2 million-tonne drop in wheat output as drought, border hostilities and water data disruptions converge.

• Pakistan may face a wheat shortfall of up to 2.2 million tonnes
• Water shortages and unrest are hurting wheat production
• Flour prices rise, 10 kg bags now up to 1,500 rupees

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Pakistan may face a wheat shortfall of 2 to 2.2 million tonnes this year, according to a report by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), at a time when tensions with Afghanistan and strains over the Indus Waters Treaty are affecting water availability and farming activity.

Wheat flour is a staple food for a large portion of Pakistan’s population. A decline of this scale raises concerns about domestic supply and food security.

Hostilities between Pakistan and Afghanistan have intensified in recent months. Reports indicate ongoing clashes, with Baloch fighters expressing support for Afghanistan.

The Baloch region includes major wheat-producing areas stretching from Khyber to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Unrest in these areas has affected agricultural activity, compounding existing pressures on farmers.

Pakistan is therefore confronting security tensions in regions central to wheat cultivation alongside a projected fall in production.

The report has also pointed to tensions surrounding the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) as a factor affecting water management.

In 2025, tensions escalated after India suspended aspects of the agreement following a terror attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir. The suspension reportedly disrupted river-level data sharing, affecting Pakistan’s ability to manage reservoirs such as Tarbela and Mangla.

Reduced water flow in the Indus river system, estimated at around 20%, combined with limited water storage capacity of roughly 30 days, has increased vulnerability to drought conditions.

Punjab’s irrigation system has faced strain, particularly during the kharif season.

The Pakistan Meteorological Department reported that rainfall in early 2025 was 39% below average, with southern and rain-fed regions most affected.

As a result, the area under wheat cultivation declined from 10.37 million hectares in 2025–26 to 9.1 million hectares. Limited water availability has affected yields and farm incomes.

The government’s delay in announcing the support price for the 2025–26 season also reportedly influenced sowing decisions, reducing overall supply.

Retail flour prices vary by region and quality.

By late February 2026, a 10 kg bag of flour typically costs between 890 and over 1,500 Pakistani rupees. A 20 kg bag is priced around 1,780 to 1,810 rupees. Premium chakki flour ranges from 160 to 200 rupees per kilogram.

In Islamabad, a 10 kg bag is available for around 890–900 rupees, while in Karachi and Lahore, similar packs are priced near 905 rupees. Larger 15–20 kg packs range between 1,729 and 1,885 rupees.

With wheat production projected to decline and water availability under strain, Pakistan faces simultaneous pressures from regional conflict and agricultural stress.