Motilal Oswal's research report on Reliance Industries
Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) (~20% of global oil/LNG supply), ~3-4mb/d of refining capacity disruptions, refined product export restrictions in China, and decade-high crude freight rates have lifted gasoil/gasoline/jet fuel cracks to USD42/16/58 per bbl in Mar’26’TD, 147%/40%/124% above LTA. PE and PX prices also rose 10-15% MoM in Mar’26’TD. We believe that even if tensions ease soon, supply chain normalization may lag, keeping product cracks elevated and supporting Reliance Industries’ (RIL) refiningpetchem margins.
Outlook
We assign INR174/sh to the New Energy business, INR30/share equity value to RCPL, and INR26/sh to RIL’s stake in JioStar. We reiterate our BUY rating with a TP of INR1,750.
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