MC EXCLUSIVE ‘Very unpredictable’: Under Trump 2.0, US allies are more anxious than adversaries

Trump 2.0 fuels anxiety among US allies

Donald Trump’s second term has emerged as a deeply unsettling phase for America’s partners and allies, generating greater anxiety among friendly capitals than among Washington’s traditional adversaries, according to Harsh V Pant, Vice President of the Observer Research Foundation (ORF).

Pant argues that Trump 2.0 has injected volatility and unpredictability into the global order, undermining confidence in US leadership at a time of heightened geopolitical stress. “This has been a very volatile period in international politics,” Pant said, adding that Trump’s approach to US foreign policy has been “very unpredictable” and has produced “a lot of anxiety around the world”.

What distinguishes Trump’s second term, Pant noted, is not merely its disruption of adversaries, but the disproportionate impact on America’s partners. Trump’s policies, he said, have induced uncertainty “not only for I think America’s adversaries but more interestingly for America’s partners and allies”.

Pant cautioned against the assumption that Trump’s return would simply extend the patterns of his first presidency. “If people thought that Trump 2.0 would merely be an extension of Trump 1.0, that has not really happened,” he said, describing Trump as “a very different president in his second term”. The result, Pant argued, has been a widening trust deficit between Washington and allied capitals across regions.

The unease is visible across Europe, the Indo-Pacific and the Western Hemisphere, where allies are increasingly uncertain about American intentions and reliability. Pant suggested that Trump’s governing style has inverted traditional expectations of US leadership, leaving partners more exposed than rivals. “We find that America’s partners are much more in distress than America’s so-called adversaries,” he said, calling the trend “quite extraordinary”.

Nowhere is this anxiety more evident than in the Indo-Pacific, where US allies and partners are grappling with Washington’s unpredictability amid intensifying competition with China. Pant pointed to Trump’s deal-making instincts and personalised diplomacy as a source of concern. While official US strategy documents continue to describe China as a challenge, Pant said there remains a strong “element of deal-making” in Trump’s approach, including the prospect of high-level engagement with Beijing.

Allies, Pant argued, are increasingly unsure whether Washington’s long-term strategic commitments will hold. “Mr Trump’s personality seems to be overpowering the structural realities of the relationship,” he said, warning that even agreements or deals offer little reassurance. “Even if a trade deal is signed tomorrow, there is no guarantee that his behaviour or American foreign policy would become more predictable.”

Pant also questioned assumptions that domestic political constraints in the US would temper Trump’s behaviour. He dismissed expectations that the 2026 midterm elections would meaningfully restrain the president. “To rely on American checks and balances to constrain Mr Trump would be a mistake,” he said, arguing that Trump has already shown a willingness to challenge institutional limits in unprecedented ways.

As a result, Pant said, allies are being forced to rethink their dependence on the United States and to explore alternative partnerships and capabilities. He cited shifts in European security thinking, growing momentum in India–EU ties, and recalibrations by countries such as Canada as evidence of a broader global response to Washington’s volatility.

“This will have long-term implications for everyone, not simply for America but also for America’s partners and how they calibrate their reliance on the US,” Pant said. In some cases, he added, countries may have little choice but to acquiesce, but over time this could drive “new capabilities being developed, new ways of pushing back, more creative ways of pushing back”.

Pant concluded that Trump’s second term is shaping a critical moment in global politics. “We are looking at a moment in global politics where foundations for some long-term changes are being put into place,” he said, warning that the anxiety gripping America’s allies today could fundamentally reshape the future of the international order.