Ukraine peace talks explained: Why the Donbas is at the heart of negotiations

For Ukraine, the land is not just real estate but a symbol of resistance tracing back to deep within its history, the New York Times reported

Donbas, where Donetsk and Luhansk are situated, has been the focal point of Russian aggression for a decade. Russia-backed separatists initially took over a piece of the land in 2014, and Moscow deepened its control since 2022. Russia occupies most of the Donbas presently and demands Kyiv cede the rest. For Ukraine, the land is not just real estate but a symbol of resistance tracing back to deep within its history, the New York Times reported.

Trump’s land swap push

During Washington peace talks, Trump pointed to a map to indicate terrain Russia has already gained. Trump officials have mentioned "land swaps" — the Donbas lost by Ukraine in exchange for security guarantees and possibly the return of smaller territory elsewhere. Trump has made it clear that without concessions, Ukraine risks losing more territory. That is intended to secure a quick deal but unsettles Kyiv officials.

Zelensky's dilemma

President Volodymyr Zelensky has excluded giving up the Donbas on constitutional and also emotional grounds. His grandfather had battled to free the region from the Nazis in World War II, and handing it over would be an emotionally painful move. However, Zelensky is being pushed: Ukrainians are overwhelmingly opposed to surrendering territory, but rejecting proposals backed by the U.S. will likely extinguish hopes for better relations with Washington at a time of fragility.

Russia's tactic

For Vladimir Putin, the Donbas has ever been a political tool to destabilize Kyiv and block its path to NATO. Insisting on the whole Donbas, Putin seeks to force Ukraine into concessions that compromise sovereignty and divide its pro-Western sponsors. Transferred now, experts claim, the Donbas would also grant Russia highly defended positions for subsequent invasions. For Moscow, the land is political and military triumph.

Security assurances in jeopardy

The only path that could make concessions acceptable to Ukrainians, experts say, is a binding Western security guarantee. Ukraine sought membership in NATO for years, but Trump shut the door on it. Instead, the US has indicated willingness to negotiate a stand-alone guarantee, perhaps with European forces or US aerial protection. It is unknown whether Russia would find such an offer acceptable, as its war began in part to pre-empt Ukraine's NATO trajectory.

What is next

Negotiations are bogged down on the same question that has hung over the conflict since 2014: whether Ukraine can trade territory for peace without jeopardizing its sovereignty. Analysts caution that without a change in Moscow's stance, talks will break down and combat will persist. For Kyiv, concessions on the Donbas threaten to destroy national cohesion. For Washington, pushing too relentlessly risks splitting the Western coalition. The prospects for the war — and for Ukraine itself — rest on this disputed territory.