US stocks rise as Venezuela ‘spillover’ seen muted; tech, energy gain

• US stocks rose as tech and energy shares gained after Venezuela's Maduro ouster
• Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and Exxon rose on US vow to boost Venezuela energy.
• Analysts expect S&P 500 to rise 9% in 2026, slower than previous years

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US equities began the first full week of trading in 2026 on a high note, with tech and energy shares leading the advance as traders showed little sign of worry over geopolitical risk following the weekend ouster of Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro.

The S&P 500 Index rose 0.6% at 9:48 a.m. in New York, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index climbed 0.8%. US oil stocks jumped as President Donald Trump pledged to revive the Venezuelan energy sector following the US move to apprehend Maduro. Chevron Corp., the only American oil major currently operating in the South American nation under special US permission, rallied. Peers ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil Corp. also rose.

Uncertainty still hangs over what comes next for Venezuela. Acting president Delcy Rodríguez asked the US to work with her country, striking a more conciliatory tone toward the Trump administration after her initial outrage at the capture of Maduro. While the events spurred moves across global assets from oil to metals to Venezuelan bonds and the US dollar, US stocks showed few signs that tensions will disrupt a three-year bull run.

“We think any spillover to the US equity market from the Maduro arrest is minimal due to Venezuela’s modest economic heft and isolation,” said Christopher Harvey, head of equity and portfolio strategy at CIBC Capital Markets. He added, however, that “recent events foreshadow greater macro uncertainty in 2026.”

That supports his team’s expectations of “risk aversion” in the first half of the year, and he urged clients to tilt their portfolios toward high-quality or low-volatility stocks.

Volatility Plays

At Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, deputy chief investment officer Max Gokhman said the prudence of hedges depends on time horizons and the cost of volatility. The CBOE Volatility Index edged higher on Monday while still near a five-year low.

“Tactical traders who see volatility as cheap may find the insurance worthwhile, but more strategic institutional investors may fade any transitory pickups in volatility,” Gokhman said.

Artificial intelligence played a key role in Monday’s risk appetite. Nvidia Corp.’s partner Hon Hai’s quarterly sales beat estimates after global tech firms accelerated their buildout of data centers, while TSMC jumped after Goldman analysts lifted their price target by 35%.

Most Wall Street startegists expect equities to climb for a fourth year after posting double-digit gains in each of the past three years, though returns are likely to be more tepid. Strategists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the S&P 500 to advance roughly 9% this year, roughly in line with the average total return this century. But that would trail the prior three years, when the index churned out rallies of 24%, 23% and 16%, respectively.

“Adjust your sights slightly lower,” Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. “It’s OK to remain a bull, but spell it with a lower-case B because we’re also bumping up against a historically challenging mid-term election year.”

Investors await a busy lineup of macroeconomic data in the days ahead, headlined by the December jobs report on Friday.

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said interest rates may be close to a neutral level for the US economy now, leaving it up to incoming data to guide the central bank’s actions.

Analysts were back at their desks after the holiday break with a batch of fresh notes. Coinbase Global Inc. shares rose after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock. CoreWeave Inc. climbed after what D.A. Davidson & Co described as a “reluctant” upgrade to neutral from underperform.