Trump wants Venezuela’s oil. But China, its biggest buyer, is already moving on

Trump wants Venezuela’s oil. But China, its biggest buyer, is already moving on

• China's oil demand is peaking as electric vehicles and renewables surge
• US plans to control Venezuelan oil face challenges as China shifts from crude
• Venezuela struggles to find buyers as global oil demand trends downward

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When President Donald Trump says the United States should take control of Venezuela’s oil and sell it to the world, the idea sounds simple. Venezuela has vast reserves. The US wants leverage. Someone will buy the crude.

The problem is that Venezuela’s single most important customer, China, is quietly falling out of love with oil, CNN reported.

For years, China has been one of the biggest buyers of Venezuelan crude. But its appetite is fading fast as the country completes one of the most dramatic energy transitions in modern history. Electric vehicles are rapidly replacing petrol cars, renewable energy is being rolled out at staggering speed, and analysts now believe China is either at or very near “peak oil” demand.

That shift matters far beyond Beijing. As the world’s largest oil importer, China sets the tone for global demand. And it means the Trump administration’s plan to rebuild Venezuela’s oil industry may be running into the future rather than shaping it.

China’s electric turn is changing everything

The biggest reason for China’s shrinking oil growth is transport. Last year, more than 11 million of the 18.5 million electric vehicles sold worldwide were bought in China, according to Rho Motion. BYD has overtaken Tesla as the world’s biggest EV seller, and Chinese brands are now flooding markets across Asia, Latin America and Africa.

“This is not a temporary policy push. It is structural,” said Li Shuo of the Asia Society Policy Institute. “Compared to the stop-start EV story in the US, China’s transition is locked in.”

Oil demand from Chinese road transport has already peaked. While petrochemicals and aviation will keep consumption growing for a while, the long-term trend is clear. Fewer petrol cars mean less imported crude.

Venezuela’s problem is not supply. It is buyers

Right now, about 400,000 to 500,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan oil go to China, according to Rystad Energy. That sounds like a lot, but it is a small slice of China’s overall imports.

If US control of Venezuela disrupts that flow, China is unlikely to panic. It can turn to discounted barrels from Russia or Iran, both already under sanctions.

“Venezuela needs China more than China needs Venezuela,” Li said.

That leaves Caracas in a weak position. The Trump administration has already told Venezuela’s interim leadership that it must cut ties with China, Russia, Iran and Cuba, and work exclusively with the US on oil production. Washington has also made clear that it intends to sell Venezuelan oil itself.

China’s foreign ministry has responded by calling its energy relationship with Venezuela “legitimate” and not subject to outside interference. But the deeper reality is that China is trying to reduce its reliance on imported oil altogether.

A clean energy superpower in the making

China is now building energy capacity on a scale the rest of the world is struggling to match. It already has about 1,400 gigawatts of wind and solar installed and is adding hundreds more. By 2030, it aims to reach 3,600 gigawatts. It is also expanding nuclear power and investing heavily in fusion research.

All of this points in one direction: energy independence.

Ironically, US pressure on Venezuela may only strengthen that resolve. If oil supply becomes more politicised, China’s incentive to escape the global oil market grows even stronger.

Two countries, two energy futures

What is emerging is a stark contrast. China is racing toward an electrified, low-carbon system. The US, under Trump, is doubling down on oil at home and abroad, even using military power to secure it.

“The world’s biggest economy is embracing a petrostate strategy,” Li said. “And the other biggest economy is trying to leave that world behind.”

That leaves Venezuela caught in between. It still has huge reserves. But in a world that is slowly learning to live without oil, finding dependable buyers may become its hardest problem of all.