MC EXCLUSIVE Trump 2.0: India rewrites Indo-Pacific strategy amid US uncertainty, China pressure

India recalibrates Indo-Pacific amid US uncertainty

New Delhi is recalibrating its Indo-Pacific strategy as it contends with the unpredictability of Donald Trump’s second term and the rising influence of China in the region. According to Harsh Vardhan Pant, Vice President of the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), India must chart a path that balances engagement with like-minded regional partners while safeguarding its core interests.

“India has to find its own path in the Indo-Pacific in partnership with other like-minded regional powers… India would want stability and does not want a country like China to be the dominant player in the Indo-Pacific,” Pant told Moneycontrol. His assessment underscores India’s efforts to hedge against both the volatility of US foreign policy and China’s expanding ambitions in the region.

Pant added that the Trump administration’s transactional approach leaves no guarantee of long-term predictability: “Even if a trade deal is signed tomorrow, there is no guarantee that his behaviour or American foreign policy towards India would become more predictable.” This reinforces the need for India to diversify its strategic partnerships beyond the US and pursue a multi-pronged approach in the Indo-Pacific.

Meanwhile, former diplomat Meera Shankar highlighted that India’s autonomy in decision-making has become more critical in this uncertain environment. “While India has sought to avoid confrontation… we have also sought to safeguard our own interests and our autonomous space for deciding which policies we wish to choose,” she said. Shankar’s comments suggest that India is maintaining open channels with the US while ensuring independent policy space to respond to regional developments.

Pant further noted the importance of working with other regional powers to maintain stability: “The policy option for India is to work with like-minded countries to ensure that [China does not become dominant in the Indo-Pacific].” This indicates a conscious effort to strengthen regional alliances, including partnerships with Japan, Australia, and Southeast Asian nations, to preserve a multipolar balance.

Shankar echoed the strategic recalibration, observing that US unpredictability compels India to hedge its bets and protect its interests. Both experts agree that the evolving dynamics in the Indo-Pacific, compounded by Trump 2.0’s disruptive approach, require India to build resilient partnerships, maintain autonomy, and actively shape regional security architecture.

As Pant concludes, “We are looking at a moment in global politics where foundations for some long-term changes are being put into place.” For India, this means a deliberate, forward-looking Indo-Pacific strategy that balances engagement with the US, hedges against China, and safeguards national interests in a rapidly changing regional order.