'Something is coming…': Analyst warns as oil holds at $70 after US–Israel strikes on Iran

Oil calm masks looming geopolitical shock

Brent crude is hovering around $70 a barrel even after confirmed US–Israel strikes on Iran, a level that market commentator Jack Prandelli says stands in stark contrast to how oil reacted during previous geopolitical crises.

In a post on X, Prandelli shared a chart tracing oil prices over the past century, marking major global shocks that drove sharp market moves. “1979: Iran crisis, Oil doubled. 2026: US strikes Iran, Brent sits at $70,” he wrote, pointing to February 2026 circled on the chart at current price levels.

The graphic highlights pivotal moments in oil market history: the 1973 OPEC embargo, when prices quadrupled; the 1979 Iran crisis, when oil doubled within 18 months; the 1990 Gulf War spike and subsequent collapse; the 2008 surge to $140 per barrel amid strong China demand and the global financial crisis; and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, when prices jumped to $115 overnight.

Prandelli noted that US–Israel strikes on Iran have been confirmed and that Iranian missiles have landed near Gulf bases in Abu Dhabi, Bahrain and Kuwait. Despite the escalation, he observed that “No export terminals damaged yet and Hormuz still open.”

He cautioned, however, that markets have historically underestimated early-stage geopolitical risks. “Every one of those red labels started as ‘contained’,” he wrote. Referring to the 1979 episode, he added that it “didn't begin as a global oil shock either, it began as a political event that the market was slow to reprice.”

2026: US strikes Iran, Brent sits at $70Every spike on this chart had a trigger.This is 100 years of oil prices. Every geopolitical shock that moved markets:1973: #OPEC embargo, Oil quadrupled 1979: Iran crisis, Oil doubled in 18… pic.twitter.com/KL7LTunDkq

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— Jack Prandelli (@jackprandelli) February 28, 2026

“The chart tells you something is coming...” Prandelli said, suggesting that the current calm in oil prices may not hold if tensions deepen further.