Iranian intelligence operatives reached out indirectly to the United States shortly after the current conflict began, offering to discuss terms to end the fighting with Washington and Israel, according to officials briefed on the outreach who spoke to The New York Times.
According to the report, operatives from Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence contacted the CIA through another country’s intelligence agency a day after the attacks on Iran began. The outreach was described by Middle Eastern officials and officials from a Western country, who spoke to The New York Times on condition of anonymity.
U.S. officials remain skeptical about the approach and do not believe that either the Trump administration or Iranian authorities are currently ready for negotiations, the officials briefed on the matter told the newspaper.
The reported offer has raised questions in Washington about whether any Iranian officials would be able to implement a cease-fire agreement at a time when the country’s leadership structure is under strain following a series of Israeli strikes targeting senior figures.
Israeli officials have urged the United States to disregard the approach, according to The New York Times. Israeli authorities favour a campaign lasting several weeks aimed at weakening Iran’s military capabilities and potentially destabilising the government.
For now, officials in Washington do not consider the Iranian approach to be a serious negotiating effort, the report said.
Trump signals talks may be 'too late'
U.S. President Donald Trump said on social media Tuesday that it was now “too late” for talks with Iran, after earlier suggesting he was open to negotiations.
Speaking to reporters later the same day, Trump said many Iranian officials who had previously been viewed as possible interlocutors had been killed during the ongoing military campaign.
“Most of the people we had in mind are dead,” Trump said. “Pretty soon we are not going to know anybody.”
Trump’s comments come as the United States and Israel continue coordinated strikes against Iranian military targets and leadership figures.
Washington weighing possible post-conflict political outcomes
The outreach from Iranian intelligence and the disruption within Iran’s leadership has highlighted a central question facing the Trump administration: what type of political leadership might emerge in Iran if the current government weakens or changes.
Trump initially suggested that military pressure could trigger a popular uprising inside Iran that might produce new leadership. More recently, however, he has indicated that a more pragmatic outcome could involve new figures emerging within Iran’s existing political system.
According to The New York Times, U.S. officials expect that any agreement to halt the military campaign would require Iran to abandon or significantly limit its ballistic missile programme, nuclear activities and support for regional proxy groups such as Hezbollah.
In return, Trump has indicated that Washington could allow surviving Iranian leaders to retain their economic and political authority.
Trump cites Venezuela as potential model
Trump suggested that the U.S. approach could resemble the situation in Venezuela earlier this year.
In January, the United States captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Under pressure from Washington, Maduro’s successor allowed the United States to take control over Venezuela’s oil exports while making limited political concessions.
“What we did in Venezuela, I think, is the perfect scenario,” Trump said in a Sunday interview with The New York Times. “Leaders can be picked.”
However, analysts cited by the newspaper cautioned that such a scenario may not translate to Iran.
Steven A. Cook, a Middle East expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, said Israel may oppose any attempt by the United States to engineer a similar political arrangement in Iran.
Israel does not want to see what Cook described as a “Venezuela-like solution to change in Iran,” potentially involving members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, he said during a briefing for reporters cited by The New York Times.
Possible role of the Revolutionary Guard
Some U.S. officials and analysts believe members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) could emerge as influential figures if Iran’s leadership structure changes.
The IRGC is a powerful military organisation that also holds significant economic influence within Iran. According to analysts cited by The New York Times, some officials believe individuals within its ranks may prioritise maintaining their authority and economic position rather than adhering strictly to ideological goals.
However, ongoing strikes have raised uncertainty about which Iranian officials might survive long enough to consolidate political power.
On Tuesday, Israeli forces reportedly struck a compound where senior Iranian clerics had gathered to select a successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an airstrike earlier in the conflict.
Intelligence assessments outline multiple leadership scenarios
Before the strikes began, the CIA prepared an intelligence assessment outlining possible scenarios for Iran’s political leadership after a U.S.-Israeli attack, according to people briefed on the report cited by The New York Times.
Officials familiar with the assessment said none of the scenarios carried a high level of confidence due to the number of unpredictable factors affecting Iran’s political system.
Some policymakers reviewing the intelligence concluded that Iran’s opposition groups were unlikely to seize power quickly.
Instead, several officials have focused on the possibility that a group of IRGC members could emerge as the dominant force within the government.
Analysts warn of potential instability
Analysts cited by The New York Times warned that Iran’s government could lose control of remote regions dominated by ethnic minority groups such as the Kurds if central authority weakens further.
Some experts say a collapse of central governance could lead to prolonged instability similar to the conflicts seen in Syria or Libya.
At the same time, analysts say Iran’s government faces internal pressure due to widespread dissatisfaction and past protests that were suppressed by security forces.
Earlier in the conflict, Trump publicly encouraged Iranians to rise against the government.
In a video announcing the assault on Saturday, Trump told Iranians that “the hour of your freedom is at hand” and suggested that citizens could take control of their government once the campaign ended.
Since then, the U.S. president has taken a more cautious tone.
“They’ll have that opportunity, but honestly that’s going to be up to them,” Trump told The New York Times. “They’re going to have to make that decision.”
Debate over possible successor figures
Trump also addressed speculation about possible leadership alternatives in Iran.
When asked about Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s former monarch who was overthrown during the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Trump said Pahlavi “looks like a very nice person” but suggested he would prefer someone who already holds influence within Iran.
Pahlavi has lived outside Iran since the late 1970s, though some demonstrators during recent protests have invoked his name.
His father, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, maintained close relations with the United States before being overthrown by the Islamic Revolution led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1979.
Long-standing tensions between Washington and Tehran
Relations between the United States and Iran have remained strained since the Islamic Revolution established a religious government that opposed U.S. and Israeli influence in the region.
Trump and senior officials have argued that Iran’s leadership cannot be trusted as a negotiating partner.
Earlier this week, Trump described Iran’s leaders as “radical lunatics” during remarks to reporters.
If Iran’s current government survives the ongoing conflict, U.S. officials may seek what Trump described as a “more moderate” figure within the existing political system capable of negotiating with Washington.
Previous U.S. administrations have attempted engagement with Iranian leaders seen as more pragmatic.
In 2015, President Barack Obama reached a nuclear agreement with Iran that placed limits on the country’s nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief. Trump withdrew the United States from that deal in 2018.
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