Pakistan headed for a civil-military clash? Munir’s elevation as supreme commander delayed as Shehbaz goes ‘missing’

File photo of Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (R) and country's army chief General Asim Munir.

Pakistan is once again paralysed by a familiar yet dangerous stalemate. The delay in issuing the notification that would formally elevate General Asim Munir as the country’s Chief of Defence Forces has spiralled into a full-blown political crisis. What should have been a simple bureaucratic formality is now the source of unprecedented tension, with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif disappearing from public view at the exact moment he is required to sign the most consequential military document of his tenure.

Going by media reports, they indicate that the delay is symptomatic of a deeper crisis within Pakistan’s power structure and not a technical oversight.

“The elevation of General Asim Munir to the role of Pakistan’s Supreme Commander has been delayed” and that what should have been a routine approval is now “caught in the finer details,” reports ThePrint.

The new role of Chief of Defence Forces centralises control of the army, navy and air force under a single office and grants sweeping authority unmatched by any previous military post.

Munir has already begun operating in a dual capacity but remains in “an administrative limbo,” since the government has not formalised his elevation. This uncertainty has been described by officials as confusing even for the military’s internal chain of command.

Former NSAB member Tilak Devasher told The Economic Times, “Even the army is not sure whether Asim Munir is chief or not,” highlighting institutional paralysis. In a separate interview with The Tribune, Devasher said that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was “deliberately staying out to avoid issuing the CDF notification.”

These statements suggest that the prime minister’s hesitation is intentional and politically motivated.

Why Shehbaz Sharif has disappeared from the scene

According to unconfirmed reports, Shehbaz Sharif has “vanished” from Islamabad ahead of the notification, setting off speculation that he is unwilling to carry the responsibility of formalising Munir’s unprecedented power. It is also speculated that Nawaz Sharif may be influencing this delay from behind the scenes.

There is logic behind Shehbaz’s reluctance. The CDF post effectively transforms Pakistan’s military hierarchy by consolidating authority under Munir in a manner that restricts future civilian oversight. Analysts at the Wilson Center and Carnegie Endowment have previously warned that Pakistan’s evolving civil-military imbalance risks making civilian governments “ceremonial entities.”

Signing the notification would cement the military’s long-term dominance and reduce the prime minister’s already limited authority. Shehbaz, who governs with a fragile mandate, appears keenly aware of the trap.

The civil-military confrontation Pakistan has been trying to avoid

The delay has already triggered a “major military leadership crisis.” The army is reportedly frustrated by the civilian government’s hesitation, while the civilian leadership fears that approving the CDF position will accelerate Pakistan’s slide into overt military rule.

Experts believe the crisis could widen. Husain Haqqani, former Pakistani ambassador to the United States, wrote in Foreign Affairs that Pakistan’s military has historically “asserted primacy whenever civilian leaders appear weak or divided.” This perfectly describes Pakistan’s current landscape.

Shehbaz and Munir do not share a natural alliance. Munir is seen as assertive and deeply involved in political decision-making. Shehbaz, on the other hand, is a compromise prime minister who lacks both political independence and public legitimacy. The two men represent opposing instincts within Pakistan’s governance system. Their standoff, even if subtle, was inevitable.

If Shehbaz signs the notification, he risks becoming a symbolic figurehead under Munir’s expanded command. If he delays further, he risks provoking the military, which has historically tolerated no resistance.

Either outcome points to deeper instability.

A crisis that reflects Pakistan’s unravelling state structure

What is unfolding now is not a bureaucratic hesitation. It is a political earthquake. Pakistan is witnessing the early signs of a fractured state trying to negotiate power between a weakened civilian government and an emboldened military leadership.

ThePrint warned that the delay in Munir’s appointment has created “an administrative vacuum at the highest level of military authority.” News18 described the situation as an “enigma,” noting that Pakistan now has a de facto CDF functioning without legal validation.

This vacuum exposes the reality of Pakistan’s governance crisis. No institution trusts the other, and every major decision becomes a battleground.

In the end, Pakistan is left with a dangerous truth. A country at war with itself cannot produce stability. The delay in Asim Munir’s notification is not just a procedural lapse. It is a reflection of the deeper meltdown in Pakistan’s governing structure, where even the appointment of the most powerful military officer cannot happen without drama, secrecy and political panic.