Kabul could be first modern city to run out of water by 2030: Why that matters and how it can be avoided

Kabul is staring down a crisis that could make it the first modern city in the world to run out of water, according to a new report by international aid organisation Mercy Corps. The Afghan capital, home to nearly six million people, may see its aquifers run dry by 2030 if urgent action is not taken.

The alarming warning isn’t merely theoretical; it is backed by years of declining groundwater levels, rising demand, and worsening climate conditions. If the current trend continues, experts say up to three million residents could be displaced, triggering a humanitarian and urban collapse unlike anything in modern times.

Why Kabul is running out of water?

The crisis stems from a deadly combination of climate change, decades of war, rapid population growth, and governance failures. Mercy Corps’ report finds that groundwater levels have plummeted by as much as 30 metres over the past decade. Almost half of Kabul’s boreholes, which are the city’s main drinking water source, have dried up.

The rate of groundwater extraction exceeds natural recharge by 44 million cubic metres annually, meaning Kabul is using far more water than nature can replace.

“Kabul has some 400 hectares of greenhouses that consume about four million cubic meters of water annually,” Najibullah Sadid, a water resources and climate change researcher based in Germany, told RFE/RL. “There are also more than 500 beverage businesses operating in Kabul. Just one such company, Alokozay, the largest soft drink company in the city, uses about one million cubic meters of groundwater each year.”

The city’s population has surged from under one million in 2001 to nearly six million today, according to Al Jazeera, driven by conflict-induced migration and centralised urbanisation. Infrastructure has not kept pace, and many areas operate with no regulated water supply systems.

Meanwhile, up to 100,000 unregulated borewells, drilled by private companies, factories, and residents, continue to deplete aquifers at unsustainable rates.

What happens if the city runs dry?

If Kabul’s aquifers go dry, the fallout will be immediate and devastating:

• Mass displacement of millions of residents
• Escalating water prices that the poor cannot afford
• Widespread disease due to unsafe water and lack of sanitation
• Collapse of agriculture and small-scale industries
• Water riots and deepening social unrest

“Afghanistan is facing a lot of problems, but this water scarcity is one of the hardest. Every household is facing difficulty, especially those with low income. Adequate, good quality well water just doesn’t exist,” said Nazifa, a teacher in Khair Khana, to The Guardian.

“My monthly salary is 21,000 Afghani (Rs 25,797.54) and I spend at least 5,000 Afghani (Rs 6,142) on water for our family of 10 people,” a resident of the Taimani neighbourhood told RFE/RL. “There are many families that can’t afford to buy water, it’s like having to choose between water and food.”

Poorer households, including children, are spending hours every day looking for water.

“Every evening, even late at night, when I am returning home from work, I see young children with small cans in their hands looking for water … they look hopeless, navigating life collecting water for their homes rather than studying or learning,” said Abdulhadi Achakzai, director of EPTDO, a Kabul-based climate protection NGO.

The role of climate change and conflict

Afghanistan’s changing climate is making things worse. According to Mercy Corps, Kabul’s three main rivers — the Kabul, Paghman, and Logar rivers — rely on glacier and snowmelt from the Hindu Kush mountains. But precipitation has drastically declined.

“Between October 2023 to January 2024, Afghanistan only received 45 to 60 per cent of the average precipitation during the peak winter season compared to previous years,” the Mercy Corps report noted.

Meanwhile, two decades of US-led intervention, combined with post-2021 governance breakdowns, led to increased migration into Kabul and neglect of rural water infrastructure, as highlighted in the report by Al Jazeera.

Contaminated water: A parallel crisis

The water that remains is often not safe to drink. Mercy Corps estimates that up to 80 per cent of groundwater in Kabul is contaminated, containing high levels of sewage, arsenic, and salinity.

“This problem is not new. For over a decade, various proposals on how to tackle the problem have been presented to Afghan authorities, but it has never been a priority for them,” Najibullah Sadid told RFE/RL.

Can Kabul’s water crisis be averted? Experts say yes

While the situation is dire, experts say it is still reversible, but only with urgent political will, international funding, and infrastructure development.

Two major water projects — the Shahtoot dam and the Panjsher River pipeline — could significantly improve Kabul’s water supply if completed.

India had signed an agreement with the now-ousted Ashraf Ghani government in 2021 to build the Shahtoot dam, which would supply millions of cubic meters of water to the city. But its future remains uncertain under the Taliban.

Meanwhile, the 200-kilometre Panjsher pipeline, expected to divert over 100 million cubic meters of water annually, is still awaiting funding. The Taliban’s Ministry of Energy and Water has said construction is on hold until budget approval is granted.

“Artificial groundwater recharge and the development of basic water infrastructure around the city are urgently needed,” said Assem Mayar, former lecturer at Kabul Polytechnic University, to Al Jazeera. “Once these foundations are in place, a citywide water supply network can gradually be developed.”

“The water crisis in the city could be resolved within a year-and-half, if there is a political will to do so,” Abdul Baset Rahmani, a Kabul-based expert on water resources and climate change, told RFE/RL.

He also called for immediate global aid: “Such support would spare these people from enormous financial and mental strain, prevent diseases, and help many children to return to school,” Rahmani said. “There are many children who can’t get education because in order to help their families they walk several kilometres every day to places where water is distributed free of charge.”