Is Bangladesh’s election at risk from security threats around Rohingya camps?

Rohingya camps raise election security fears

Just weeks before Bangladesh heads to the polls, the interim administration led by Chief Adviser Md Yunus has quietly raised concerns over what it sees as a growing security and electoral risk linked to Rohingya refugee camps in Cox’s Bazar, News18 has learnt.

According to News18 report,  a confidential notification issued from Md Yunus’s office warning of the presence of “armed groups” and stockpiles of “illegal weapons” inside the camps. The document flags fears that these elements could be used to undermine the upcoming election, not only in Cox’s Bazar but also “in others parts of the country”.

According to the notification, intelligence agencies believe some Rohingyas have illegally managed to get themselves enrolled on the voter rolls and may attempt to cast ballots during the election. It cautions that “individuals or groups with vested interests” could exploit the refugee population to disrupt polling in Cox’s Bazar and nearby constituencies — a region that has long been politically and administratively sensitive because of the sheer scale of the refugee presence.

The Bangladesh Election Commission has already barred Rohingyas from participating in the electoral process and has instructed the government to seal the camps to prevent movement that could interfere with voting. But the notification concedes that enforcing such an order will be extremely difficult.

Sealing the camps, it says, would be “untenable” given the vast size of the settlements — among the largest refugee camps in the world — and the fact that many CCTV cameras installed there are not operational. These shortcomings, the document acknowledges, have created gaps that could be exploited during the election period.

In response, the Yunus administration has outlined a set of emergency measures to be rolled out in the final days before polling.

From seven days ahead of the vote, any Rohingya found outside designated camp areas is to be immediately detained. Security forces are also set to launch a special operation to recover illegal arms and ammunition from within the camps during this period.

The notification further states that the three Armed Battalion Police (ABPN) units deployed in Cox’s Bazar must remain in place and cannot be reassigned elsewhere. These battalions have been tasked with maintaining round-the-clock vigilance, monitoring movement, preventing infiltration into nearby population centres and ensuring the camps do not become staging grounds for unrest.

Alongside the security push, the administration has ordered the immediate release of funds to repair damaged boundary walls and restore non-functional CCTV systems, a move that reflects official concern over the weakness of existing physical and technological safeguards.

The confidential communication highlights the tightrope Dhaka is walking: trying to prevent any attempt to sabotage the election while avoiding a humanitarian crisis involving nearly a million Rohingya refugees.

For India and the wider region, developments in Cox’s Bazar are being followed closely. Instability in southeastern Bangladesh carries the risk of spilling across borders, particularly at a time when the country is preparing for a high-stakes election under intense domestic and international scrutiny.

Bangladesh is scheduled to vote on February 12, 2026 — the first national election since Sheikh Hasina was ousted on August 5, 2024, during a mass uprising, which she described on Friday as a “conspired regime change” in an audio message. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by Tarique Rahman, is widely seen as the frontrunner, with a recent poll suggesting nearly 70 per cent of respondents intend to vote for the party. Jamaat-e-Islami, previously barred from elections, has also re-emerged as a significant player and is contesting in alliance with other parties, including the National Citizen Party (NCP), a newer outfit that grew out of the youth-led movement of 2024.