India has entered ‘TACO’ zone, Trump always chickens out: Why Ian Bremmer says India now has upper hand over US

US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi - File Photo

India is asserting strategic independence, resisting US pressure, and prioritizing its own interests. Strong economic growth and a pending EU trade deal boost its autonomy, while stalled US trade talks highlight India's shift toward diversified global partnerships.

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India is increasingly asserting its strategic independence and shedding the role of a country that must bend to US demands, according to political analyst Ian Bremmer. In an interview with NDTV, Bremmer said India now sits on what he calls the “TACO” spectrum, meaning “Trump Always Chickens Out.”

He explained that this reflects India’s growing confidence because it knows the United States, especially under Donald Trump, tends to fold when challenged by countries with real strength. “India is more on the TACO scale,” Bremmer said. “Trump always chickens out when challenged by real strength.” He added, “It is not urgent for Modi to respond to Trump in the way he wants.”

Bremmer contrasted this with countries on the FAFO scale, short for “fool around and find out,” which includes weaker states that suffer consequences when they confront stronger powers. India’s robust economic growth of seven to eight percent this year, combined with strong private investment and demand, gives it rare strategic freedom that Washington cannot easily pressure. The International Monetary Fund raised India’s GDP forecast for fiscal year 2026 to 7.3 percent, up from 6.6 percent, underscoring this strength.

The backdrop to this shift includes the collapse of a long-awaited India–US trade deal. Trade talks faltered amid high U.S. tariffs on Indian goods, and despite domestic pressure, New Delhi refused to hastily yield. India’s approach contrasts with countries that depend heavily on U.S. markets and thus face more pressure to make concessions.

At the same time, India is diversifying its trade partnerships. After nearly two decades of negotiation, a landmark Free Trade Agreement with the European Union is close to completion, offering expanded market access for Indian goods and services and improved investment flows. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has called it the “mother of all deals,” noting that it will be a “super deal” for India’s export sectors while protecting its national interests.

Analysts say this evolving strategy reflects India’s emphasis on strategic autonomy rather than dependency on a single partner. With no desperation for a bilateral trade pact with the United States and growing prospects with the EU, India is charting a course that prioritises its own growth and geopolitical interests ahead of external pressures. This shift not only weakens Washington’s leverage but also strengthens India’s position as a major global player capable of shaping its own economic and strategic future.