How President Trump decided to go to war with Iran

Quiet diplomacy masked rapid war preparation

When US President Donald Trump authorised strikes that opened a war with Iran, it did not come after a dramatic public pivot. It came after weeks of parallel tracks: quiet diplomacy on the surface and accelerating war planning underneath, the New York Times reported.

Netanyahu’s push in the Oval Office

On February 11, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met Trump in the Oval Office. Israel had already been discussing potential strikes with US officials. At the same time, the Trump administration had begun indirect talks with Iran over its nuclear program.

Netanyahu’s aim was clear. He did not want negotiations to slow or derail military action. According to accounts from officials familiar with the talks, the two leaders discussed possible timelines for an attack and the likelihood that diplomacy would fail.

Days later, Trump publicly signalled scepticism about negotiations, dismissing years of talks with Iran as fruitless.

A rapid military buildup

In January, the US military was not positioned for a sustained conflict. There were no aircraft carriers in the region. Air defences at US bases were limited. Israel was also not fully prepared.

That changed quickly. Two carrier strike groups, including the USS Gerald R Ford, were moved into position. Fighter jets, bombers, refuelling tankers and air defence systems followed. By mid-February, the Pentagon had assembled enough force to support weeks of combat operations.

The buildup continued even as White House envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner pursued nuclear talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

Inside the Situation Room

On February 18, Trump met with US Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine to review options.

Military planners laid out scenarios ranging from limited strikes to a broader campaign aimed at weakening or even toppling Iran’s leadership. General Caine warned that a larger campaign carried risks, including US casualties and regional destabilization.

Vance, who had previously been sceptical of foreign interventions, reportedly argued that if the US was going to strike, it should do so decisively.

At the same time, CIA analysts were studying what might happen if Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were killed. Scenarios ranged from hard-line succession to internal power struggles within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Diplomacy as a last step

On February 24, senior administration officials briefed congressional leaders on possible strikes but did not mention regime change. Two days later, Witkoff and Kushner travelled to Geneva for another round of talks.

Iran refused to commit to zero uranium enrichment, a core US demand. After the meeting, US officials concluded that a deal was unlikely.

That same week, Trump reportedly told advisors he believed negotiations had run their course.

The intelligence break

The final decision hinged on US intelligence. The CIA determined that Khamenei would be at his residential compound in Tehran on Saturday morning, along with senior civilian and military officials.

The information was passed to Israel. The two countries decided to launch a daylight strike targeting the leadership.

While flying to an event in Texas, Trump gave the go order. “Operation Epic Fury is approved,” he said, according to officials familiar with the moment.

Few dissenting voices

Opposition within Trump’s inner circle was limited. Some outside advisers, including media personality Tucker Carlson, urged caution and warned of broader consequences. But within the administration, momentum favoured action.

By the time the missiles struck Tehran, the diplomatic track had effectively ended. What had appeared publicly as an uncertain path had, behind the scenes, narrowed steadily toward confrontation.

The war that followed was not an abrupt shift. It was the culmination of weeks of preparation, persuasion and a final intelligence opportunity that reshaped the president’s calculation.