From lottery system to wage-based process: How Trump’s new H-1B visa plan could hit India’s entry-level talent

The Trump administration’s latest proposal to reshape the H-1B visa programme could fundamentally change how the United States admits skilled foreign workers. After announcing a $100,000 annual visa fee for new H-1B applications, the administration is now moving to replace the long-running random lottery with a weighted selection system.

The Department of Homeland Security says the new process would “favour the allocation of H-1B visas to higher skilled and higher paid aliens, while maintaining the opportunity for employers to secure H-1B workers at all wage levels.”

These changes are expected to severely limit entry-level opportunities, especially for Indian workers. Let’s understand how:

What’s the new proposal

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has proposed a wage-tiered selection process that would give employers paying higher salaries a greater chance of securing H-1B visas when demand exceeds the 85,000-visa cap. According to Bloomberg, applicants would be grouped into four wage levels using US Labor Department data. Those in the top wage level would receive four entries in the selection pool, while those in the lowest wage tier would receive only one.

The goal, according to DHS, is to “better protect American workers from unfair wage competition” and direct visas to “the most highly skilled foreign professionals.”

How it will impact Indians

India has long dominated the H-1B programme. In 2024, Indians accounted for 71 percent of the 399,395 approved H-1B visas, with China a distant second at 11.7 percent. Immigration lawyers and policy analysts believe this new approach could hit entry-level Indian workers hardest.

Sophie Alcorn, a Silicon Valley-based immigration attorney, told Bloomberg, “Having a wage-based lottery system would decrease total demand for skilled immigration, particularly affecting aspiring immigrants who are entry-level workers.”

According to the Heritage Institute, a conservative US think tank, most H-1B positions are filled by workers in their mid-twenties earning below-median wages. This demographic, it noted, would have the lowest odds in a wage-weighted system.

Last week, the Trump administration also announced a $100,000 fee for new H-1B visas, initially causing confusion among companies and workers. While the White House later clarified the fee would not apply to existing holders, it still represents a dramatic cost increase for employers seeking fresh talent. Combined with the wage-based allocation proposal, the higher fee signals a broader push to restrict lower-wage foreign hiring.

Both the steep fee hike and the new selection system are expected to face legal challenges. During his first term, Donald Trump attempted to roll out similar changes but was blocked by federal courts. The Biden administration delayed and then withdrew a related rule in 2021 after it was struck down by a judge.