Dhaka at the crossroads: Why Bangladesh elections have become a US-China battleground | Explained

Supporters of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) acting chairman Tarique Rahman listen to his speech after his return from London, in Dhaka, Bangladesh, December 25, 2025. REUTERS/Mohammad Ponir Hossain

Bangladesh’s upcoming election is marked by rising US-China tensions, with both powers vying for influence. The US warns against closer ties with Beijing, while China rebuffs US criticism. Former PM Hasina’s ouster adds to political uncertainty and global scrutiny.

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With just weeks to go before Bangladesh votes, political tensions are not being driven by rival parties alone. Instead, the spotlight has shifted to a growing diplomatic contest between China and the United States, both seeking to shape outcomes in a country long seen as strategically vital to India’s neighbourhood.

For Beijing, Bangladesh is a gateway to South Asia and an important link in its Belt and Road Initiative. For Washington, the concern is about limiting China’s expanding footprint in the region.

The February 12 election will be Bangladesh’s first since the ouster of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina, a long-time ally of India. That transition has triggered renewed global interest, with major powers openly jostling for influence over Dhaka’s future trajectory.

US raises alarm over China’s expanding footprint

The diplomatic sparring became public when Brent Christensen, the US envoy to Bangladesh, warned of the risks Dhaka could face by drawing too close to Beijing.

Christensen said the United States does not take sides in Bangladesh’s elections but described the upcoming vote as the most consequential in nearly two decades.

Addressing reporters, he said, "You know, as I said in my hearingI am concerned about broader Chinese influence in South Asia. I think the United States government has been very clear about that."

He added, as reported by Dhaka Tribune, "And as I committed to my hearing, I will always engage with our friends in the government be it the interim government or the newly elected government to clearly articulate the risks of involvement with the Chinese in certain areas should the Bangladesh government choose to go down that path."

While framed as concern rather than interference, the remarks signalled Washington’s unease about losing ground in a region it considers strategically sensitive.

Beijing pushes back sharply

China’s response was swift and unusually blunt.

Reacting to Christensen’s comments, Beijing urged Washington "to be more aware of its responsibilities and focus on actions that are conducive to Bangladesh’s stability" as well as regional development and cooperation.

A spokesperson at the Chinese Embassy in Bangladesh rejected the US envoy’s remarks outright, saying,

"Such remarks by the US Ambassador to Bangladesh are irresponsible and utterly unfounded."

The spokesperson went further, asking the US not to "confuse right and wrong" and stating that the ambassador’s comments "are completely out of ulterior motives".

Emphasising Beijing’s ties with Dhaka, the spokesperson added, "The China-Bangladesh cooperation has delivered benefits to and received broad support from the people of both countries. It is conducive to the development and stability in the region."

China underlined that cooperation between Dhaka and Beijing is strictly a bilateral matter and not open to criticism or interference from external actors, particularly the United States.

Hasina’s shadow looms over the election

The US–China exchange comes against the backdrop of deep political upheaval in Bangladesh following Sheikh Hasina’s removal from power last year.

Hasina, who has repeatedly accused Washington of seeking her ouster, has claimed that the current interim government led by Muhammad Yunus is aligning too closely with the United States.

While in exile in India, Hasina posted a strongly worded message on Facebook alleging American involvement in the assassination of her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Bangladesh’s founding leader.

She linked the killing to his refusal to cede St. Martin’s Island.

"When America wanted St. Martin’s Island, my father did not agree. He had to give his life. And that was my destiny, because I never had the thought of selling the country to stay in power," Hasina said.

Her Awami League party has since been barred from contesting the elections, raising questions about political inclusivity and legitimacy.

An election overshadowed by great power politics

What should have been a domestic democratic exercise is now unfolding under intense international scrutiny. The open exchange between Washington and Beijing highlights how Bangladesh has become a frontline state in a wider geopolitical contest.

For Dhaka, the challenge lies in navigating competing pressures without compromising stability. For the region, the concern is whether global rivalries will further polarise an already fragile political landscape.

As Bangladesh prepares to vote, the loudest battles are no longer just at home but between global powers determined to shape the country’s future from the outside.