Defence, nuclear and $200 billion trade push: Why MBZ visited India for three hours and why it's bad news for Pakistan

UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan (L) speaking with Prime Minister Narendra Modi during their meeting in New Delhi. (Photo by Indian Press Information Bureau (PIB) / AFP)

Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed’s India visit secured key trade, defence, and energy deals, doubling trade goals and strengthening ties, highlighting UAE’s preference for India over Pakistan amid changing West Asian geopolitics.

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When world leaders visit India, they typically stay for extended engagements. Yet on January 19, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan came to New Delhi for just about three hours to meet Narendra Modi. He arrived, held talks and departed in the time it takes to fly between the two capitals. But what it lacked in duration, the visit made up for in substance.

Against the backdrop of shifting West Asian geopolitics, rising instability, and Pakistan’s waning influence, the visit delivered a flurry of strategic, economic and energy deals that reinforce India’s role as a reliable partner. It also highlighted the UAE’s preference for New Delhi’s professional approach to defence and security over Islamabad’s volatile regional posture.

Big-ticket trade and economic agreements

During their meeting, the two countries agreed on an ambitious roadmap to expand cooperation in high-growth sectors. India and the UAE agreed to double bilateral trade to over USD 200 billion by 2032, with a focus on micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), digital trade corridors and new market access. This builds on the strong post-Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement trade relationship that has seen bilateral commerce surge past USD 100 billion in recent years.

A long-term investment framework was also agreed for Gujarat’s Dholera region and GIFT City. The partnership includes developing an international airport, greenfield port, smart urban township, railway infrastructure, energy facilities, data centres, supercomputing clusters and financial services. UAE firms such as First Abu Dhabi Bank and DP World are expected to participate actively in these projects.

Strategic defence and energy deals

Of the five key documents signed, the most significant is the Letter of Intent to establish a Strategic Defence Partnership, outlining cooperation on advanced technologies, cyber security, joint training, special operations and counter-terrorism. This builds on India’s reputation for professional defence collaboration and offers the UAE a reliable partner amid regional security uncertainties.

In energy, a long-term LNG supply agreement was finalised between Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited and ADNOC Gas for 0.5 million tonnes per year beginning in 2028, strengthening India’s energy security. This is backed by a broader push for cooperation in civil nuclear technologies and space ventures, including joint research, launch facilities, satellite fabrication and potentially next-generation nuclear power applications.

Diplomacy and broader security alignment

The two leaders also discussed regional security, reiterated condemnation of terrorism in all its forms, and affirmed cooperation within the Financial Action Task Force framework to counter terror financing and strengthen anti-money laundering efforts. Cooperation on the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor and support for the US-led Gaza peace initiative were also noted.

Prime Minister Modi said on X that it was “a great pleasure to host my brother, His Highness Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan,” and that they discussed “a wide range of issues aimed at further strengthening the multifaceted India-UAE friendship.” The UAE president said he was “pleased to meet … to discuss opportunities to further strengthen the deep-rooted and historical ties of cooperation between our countries” and to foster sustainable development and economic growth.

A quiet strategic counter to Pakistan

The timing of MBZ’s visit matters. The Gulf has witnessed a complex shift in alliances, including a new Saudi-Pakistan defence understanding. In this context, Abu Dhabi sees Pakistan’s regional alignment as less dependable. The UAE’s pursuit of a defence partnership with India signals a preference for cooperation that is professional and free of ideological baggage, contrasting sharply with Pakistan’s approach. The India-UAE framework thus acts as a strategic counter to Pakistan’s attempts to deepen military ties with Gulf states, reinforcing India’s role as a stabilising regional partner.

In just three hours, MBZ’s visit reinforced India’s expanding global footprint, delivered major economic and strategic outcomes, and signalled a shift in regional trust away from Pakistan toward New Delhi.