Canada’s work-permit cliff could push millions out of status, Indians could be the biggest hit

Millions of permits expiring in 2025–26 could push many out of status.

• Canada may see 2 million undocumented residents by mid-2026 as permits expire
• Indians could make up about half of those losing legal status
• Tighter visa pathways and processing delays worsen risks for temporary workers

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Canada could see a sharp jump in undocumented residents as millions of work permits expire across 2025 and 2026, with Indians forming the largest share of those at risk, an immigration consultant told Hindustan Times, citing data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC).

Mississauga-based immigration consultant Kanwar Seirah told Hindustan Times that IRCC data shows about 1,053,000 work permits expired by end-2025, and another 927,000 are set to expire in 2026.

What’s driving the 'out-of-status' risk

When a work permit expires, a person loses legal status unless they secure another visa route or transition to permanent residency, Seirah told Hindustan Times.

The consultant argued that recent policy shifts and tighter pathways have made those transitions harder for temporary workers and international students, creating a pipeline problem just as Canada is processing very large temporary resident volumes.

The scale: why 2026 could be the crunch year

Seirah warned Canada has not previously dealt with expiries at this level. He told Hindustan Times that January–March 2026 alone could see roughly 315,000 work permits expire, following more than 291,000 expiries in the last quarter of 2025.

He estimated that by mid-2026, as many as two million people could be living in Canada without legal status, with Indians accounting for about half, calling that a “conservative” estimate.

Where the stress is showing up

Seirah told Hindustan Times the impact may already be visible in parts of the Greater Toronto Area, including Brampton and Caledon, where he claimed tent encampments have appeared in wooded areas housing undocumented people. Hindustan Times reported the claim as part of his warning about social strain.

Why Indians are central to this story

The sheer numbers matter, and so does the profile of Canada’s temporary resident population, where Indians make up a major share of workers and students. The risk, Seirah argued, is that permit expiries + tighter transitions + processing bottlenecks can push many into a grey zone: employed or seeking work, but without valid status.