US Midterms | No red wave, but a hobbled presidency for the rest of Biden’s term seems certain

The critical midterm election to the United States Congress on November 8 resulted in the Democratic Party losing its majority in the House of Representatives to the Republican Party although results from many key constituencies are still awaited.

In the 100-seat Senate, where 35 members had to seek re-election, the picture is not yet very clear. The Democrats had a wafer-thin majority in the upper chamber of the Congress—a 51-49 lead over the Republicans.

Whether they have managed to retain their control of the Senate will only be known later.

But two things are clear from the election results: the Joe Biden presidency is in for an acrimonious House where most of the legislation he proposes will be contested and most likely scuttled by the Republican Representatives.

Hobbled presidency 

Still, despite the Democratic Party spin doctors’ assertion that the elections indicated no “red wave”—the colour that denotes the Republican Party against the Democratic Party’s blue—a hobbled presidency for the rest of Biden’s term is almost certain.

It is argued by the Democrats that most American presidents in recent times—Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and even Donald Trump -- had lost more seats during midterm in their presidency than what Biden has lost.

But the elections have taken place under a most polarised US polity where most candidates are preferred along party lines.

Most importantly, the outcome of the midterm polls reflects on Biden’s leadership and his bid for a second term in the 2024 presidential election.

Open question 

Whether the Democratic Party will feel confident about Biden leading the organisation in the next presidential election remains an open question.

The Republican Party could also be a little disappointed with the outcome of the polls as it realizes it will not be able to overwhelm the Democrats in the House.

Although former president Donald Trump continues to be the star in the Republican Party, his influence over party colleagues and voters, also seems to have diminished.

Trump is likely to announce his candidacy for the next presidential election soon. But there could also be other challengers to his claim to lead the party in the coming months.

Ron DeSantis 

Quite a few candidates that Trump supported have underperformed in the elections, leading many to look beyond the former president.

One possible leader who is likely to emerge as an alternative to Trump in the Republican Party could be Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor who won reelection.

He could well be a new face of the Republican Party. But this could only lead Trump to adopt a more hard-line position to shake up the political battleground and urge his supporters to create unrest in the country in the coming months.

The problem for the Democratic Party will be more acute as it does not yet have a leader to replace Biden.

No obvious Democratic alternative to Biden 

Now that Biden’s position as the next presidential candidate is no longer unassailable in the party, many more Democrat leaders may fancy their chances of stepping in as a viable presidential candidate.

This is a well-known practice in selecting the right candidate for the presidential election. But a sitting president losing the confidence and failing to get renominated for a second term is always a disadvantage for the organisation and the new leader.

The slowing of the economy and rising inflation affecting food and energy prices are said to be the reason for the Democratic Party losing the House.

If the economy improves in the coming months, it could help the Democrats' chances in the next presidential election.

Foreign policy goals  

But if it goes into an economic recession, then things are going to get much tougher for the Biden administration to not only deal with the domestic situation, but also in pushing through many of its foreign policy goals.

The ongoing Ukraine war would certainly get a lot of focus in the coming days as attempts could be renewed to start negotiations between Russia and Ukraine to bring the conflict to an end.

But to do this, the US would have to rely on other countries that could influence both the warring parties.

India is certainly one such country that is acceptable to both and has been advocating an early end to the war.

Biden might have to rely also on others like Turkey to use their influence with both countries.

Engaging China 

The most important among them would obviously be China that could play a role in convincing both Russia and Ukraine to stop the war and opt for a negotiated settlement.

To do this the US and the European countries would have to start engaging with China and roll back their hostile approach towards Beijing.

This would certainly have an  impact in the Indo-Pacific region. How the US and China deal with their outstanding issues on trade and technology disputes and meet the challenge of Taiwan, could then be in focus in the coming months.

India has the edge 

For India, the emerging scenario could prove to be advantageous. The political stability in the country, the huge potential market and its growing knowledge and skill base are attracting investors to set up shop and expand their economic presence in the country.

As the post-pandemic situation has forced many countries to look for newer destinations for their production hub beyond China or in expanding their options, India could well be their goal.

How India meets these challenges and opportunities would be known soon; the first of these efforts could reflect in the outcome of the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s visit to Delhi.

The two sides are likely to deepen their economic and business partnership during her visit.

The success of Yellen’s engagement with India could encourage others also to seriously look at India as a future destination for business and investment.

All the bets would be off if the world at large and the Indo-Pacific region, in particular, plunges into a new political crisis and a phase of uncertainty.