Army Base Leopoldsburg, Belgium - The Leopard 1A5 main battle tank (MBT), still used by the Belgian Army, in the fields. Image: Getty Images
After days of reluctance, Germany on Wednesday decided to send its prized battle tanks—Leopard 2, to Ukraine.
The move could change the course of the ongoing Ukraine war that is grinding its way to the second year. It could render the conflict more violent and raise the number of casualties alarmingly in the coming days.
NATO and the European countries had mounted relentless pressure on Germany over the past few weeks in an attempt to break its reticence on supplying the Leopard tanks to Ukraine.
Berlin decided to shift from its earlier stand after the Joe Biden Administration also agreed to give up its refusal and send 30 M1 Abrams tanks.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the decision to send 14 tanks and allow other countries to send the Leopard 2 tanks from their inventory after a cabinet meeting on January 25.
Dmitry Peskov, the Press Secretary of Russian President Vladimir Putin, said there was an overestimation of the potential the tanks would bring to the Ukrainian army, describing the move as a “failed plan”.
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The western camp believes the sophisticated tanks could help Ukraine put up a more effective defence and even retake territory it lost to the invading Russian army.
But the unknown consequences of the proposed escalation in the supply of more sophisticated and heavy weaponry had earlier made Berlin pause to think of the weapons it ought to supply to Kyiv.
Last week, a crowd gathered outside German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s office chanting “Free the Leopards now” as the demand gathered ground with increasing urgency across Europe.
The western tanks would represent the most powerful direct offensive weapon provided to Ukraine so far.
Germany’s reluctance had stemmed from two basic reasons — it did not want the war to escalate further, and involve NATO in it. Berlin also did not want to be singled out by Russia to have escalated the war by sending the Leopard tanks to Ukraine.
It had indicated it won’t send the Leopard tanks or allow any other country to send them from their inventory, unless the US also agrees to send its M1 Abrams tanks to Kyiv.
The Pentagon, on the other hand, has said it has no intention of doing so given the logistical costs of maintaining such tanks.
But subsequently, it also changed its stand and decided to send the Abrams to Kyiv.
The latest development in the western camp is expected to establish two battalions with Leopard 2 tanks, of which 14 are being sent by Germany for Ukraine.
A battalion comprises three of four companies with around 14 tanks each. Poland has also pledged 14 Leopard tanks from its inventory, while Britain has promised to send 14 of its own Challenger tanks.
Ukraine said it needed around 300 of these modern tanks to beat back the Russians.
According to estimates there are about 2,000 Leopard tanks across Europe. But without Germany’s nod they cannot be sent to Ukraine by any of the NATO members.
To put pressure on Germany, the United Kingdom had decided to transfer the first squadron of its Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine.
But when the NATO contact group met in Berlin last week it could not make Germany change its stand.
While allies were getting exceedingly frustrated with Germany’s reluctance, there were also sections within the country that felt the controversy over Leopards was harming Germany’s image in the world.
“Whether out of obstinacy or cowardice, the chancellor is leaving Ukraine hanging and Germany is left looking increasingly lonely in Europe,” said a German observer.
Reports suggest that both Ukraine and Russia are gearing up for new offensives in the coming spring.
The US announced a new $2-billion security package for Ukraine that includes sophisticated combat and armoured vehicles.
The tank standoff comes in the middle of a larger debate over sending increasingly sophisticated weaponry to Ukraine, including longer-range missiles that would allow Ukraine to hit targets as far as 200 miles away.
There is disagreement among the western alliance on supplying Ukraine with long-range missiles as it risks escalation between NATO and Russia.
The debate about how far to go in arming Ukraine, particularly by long-range missiles, reflects a broader disagreement over the risks of escalation between NATO and Russia.
The Baltic states have been pushing for NATO members to provide heavier equipment to Kyiv.
Though British officials have been interested in supplying such missiles to Ukraine, the US has refused to do so as they could be used to attack targets inside Russia.
Change in German defence posture
As the wealthiest country in Europe, Germany has benefited enormously from its policy of keeping their feet in two camps. While it has been protected by NATO membership, its economy thrived on cheap Chinese labour and energy from Russia.
Many saw this pragmatism and reluctance to pick up sides as a hindrance to its defence reforms.
For years, Germany has spent far less on its military than many of its western allies.
But the Ukraine war made it rethink its earlier position.
Soon after the invasion last February, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz surprised everyone by announcing a $108-billion budget to modernise Germany’s military capacity.
He also promised to lift defence spending to 2 percent — meeting a target set by NATO.
However, though a year has passed, Scholz's vision has failed to become a reality.
On the other hand, Germany has sent more military aid to Ukraine after the US and the UK. Recently, it also supplied Kyiv with armoured infantry fighting vehicles and the Patriot missile defence system.
But Berlin saw tanks as a big step up from the weaponry it delivered to Ukraine so far. It feared that Russia will see the delivery of tanks as a major escalation.
Scholz's reluctance stems from the country’s past history, as he pointed out ― the two world wars had originated from Germany.
Last week, Christine Lambrecht resigned as defence minister of Germany amid criticism of her efforts to modernise the military.
However, the question before Scholz is how far Germany is willing to go in being a serious military presence in Europe.
Observers say that policy has been called out and Germany must now decide exactly what kind of voice it wants to have in the current conversation taking place about global security.
A DeutschlandTrend poll last week showed 46 per cent of Germans are in favour of sending Leopards, but 43 per cent are against — with 11 percent undecided.
But many Germans worry that sending tanks would be a step too far.
They fear that if Ukraine attempts to liberate territory occupied by Russia, like Crimea, it could increase the likelihood of Russia resorting to nuclear weapons and turning on NATO.
The German Chancellor had made it clear that he would not be pushed into hasty decisions by the Ukraine hawks that could drag NATO into the war.
Germans had spent decades of the Cold War under the cloud of a nuclear war. A repetition of that scenario was something Scholz wanted to avoid at all costs.
But after the US decided to send its sophisticated tanks, Germany did not want to be left out and be seen among its European and NATO partners as not doing its bit to help democratic Ukraine win its war against autocratic Russia.
However, the coming days will show how Germany has played a crucial role in shaping the latest war in Europe.
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