G7 Summit unlikely to make material progress on N-disarmament

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be leaving for Japan tomorrow. His host, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, has pledged to take “more realistic and practical steps” to promote a nuclear weapons-free world when he meets leaders at the Group of Seven (G7) summit in Hiroshima this weekend.

Kishida has chosen Hiroshima as the venue of the critical G7 summit with care. Not only does he hail from the city, it is also the site of the world’s first nuclear attack.

On August 6, 1945, during World War II, the Americans decided to drop the atom bomb on Hiroshima — an episode whose memory continues to horrify large numbers of people in Japan and the rest of the world.

According to the Japan Times, the stories shared by those who survived the bomb, known as the hibakusha, and records of the herculean reconstruction efforts are more poignant than ever because of the Ukraine war and the threat of nuclear conflict.

Much of the focus is expected to be on Russia, which has threatened to use nuclear weapons if the US-led NATO alliance encourages Kyiv to cross Moscow’s “red lines,” and target strategic assets inside Russia.

Kishida will take the visiting leaders to the museum built in memory of the victims of Hiroshima to convey a strong message against the use of nuclear weapons.

But observers feel that apart from statements against the use of nuclear weapons, the G7 leaders will not be able to take a collective step towards disarmament.

The concerns about Russia notwithstanding, the US is the only country that has used nuclear weapons during a conflict.

On August 6 and 9, 1945, it dropped two cutely named atom bombs — Little Boy and Fat Man — on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, killing over 66,000 and 39,000, while injuring 69,000 and 25,000, respectively.

On August 6, Hiroshima Day is observed in different countries and school children are taught about the inhuman suffering of the victims of a nuclear attack.

But despite this annual ritual, the number of countries that possess nuclear weapons has increased significantly, from one in 1945, to nine. Many more are looking for the opportunity to have the bomb.

At present, the US, Britain, France, Russia, and China are the acknowledged nuclear weapons powers in the world. But India, Israel, Pakistan, and North Korea are also widely known to possess the weapon and recognised as among the nine countries that have a nuclear arsenal.

Iran has repeatedly denied that it is developing a nuclear weapon. But experts believe that after the invasion of Iraq by America, Teheran is convinced that only if it has nuclear weapons can it deter an attack by Washington.

Most countries possess nuclear weapons to deter attacks from powerful countries with a stronger conventional arsenal.

Since the Cold War, when there were over 70,300 nuclear weapons, there has been a significant decline. Today it is estimated that there are about 12,500 nuclear warheads in the world.

But having retired many of the old weapons, countries continue to modernise their remaining stockpile of nuclear weapons, and many are kept in battle-ready condition, in position to fly against potential enemies.

Kishida is likely to repeat some of the points of the Hiroshima Action Plan he highlighted last August during a nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) review conference. He may also call for states to decrease their nuclear stockpiles and disclose information on the production of fissile material.

But experts feel that the G7 is unlikely to agree to any binding commitment on reducing nuclear arsenals or to end the stationing of nuclear weapons in third countries.

The Japanese Prime Minister could also ask for discussions on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and the Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT). But neither of the treaties have come into force yet.
India is not a signatory to either the NPT or the CTBT as it considers the treaties discriminatory in nature.

These treaties were brought in to derail India’s nuclear weapons programme by the US-led western coalition in the 1970s. India is unlikely to sign them unless it is formally recognised as a nuclear power.

But after the signing of the civil nuclear agreement between India and the US, New Delhi has been recognised as a de facto nuclear power. The US and its allies who cooperate with India on civil nuclear energy, no longer insist it destroys its nuclear weapons.

Despite the known Indian stand, it is unlikely that pressure will be brought on it to sign these treaties immediately, as was the case when it conducted a series of nuclear tests in May 1998.

India is now a close partner of the US and Washington, and its Asian allies need its support in the Indo-Pacific, where China’s aggressive rise is a serious concern for countries in the region.

Moreover, there is a lot of criticism of the G7 countries' security policies, where nuclear weapons play an essential part.

Though the US, France, and Britain are the only countries with nuclear weapons, two other European countries — Italy and Germany — host such weapons in military bases, and Canada and Japan rely on the American nuclear umbrella for deterring attacks from hostile neighbours.
Critics say the G7’s nuclear policy lacks transparency and undermines global security.

Therefore, the demand for a nuclear weapons-free world at the forthcoming summit in Hiroshima is likely to be issued without any real commitment to getting rid of the global nuclear arsenal within a reasonable time.