India is now the world's most populous country, surpassing China: UN report

India is now the world's most populous country, surpassing China.

India has surpassed China in population and is now the most populous country in the world, according to a United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) report titled ‘The State of World Population Report, 2023’.

The report indicates that India's population is 1.4286 billion while China's stands at 1.4257 billion, making a difference of 2.9 million. It is the first time since 1950 when the UN started to collect population data that India's population has overtaken China's.

Experts believe that India's demographic advantage, its young population, in a consumer-driven economy will be a significant factor in driving the country's development and will present an enormous opportunity for the country's economic growth. Andrea Wojner, UNFPA's India representative, notes that the country's young working-age cohort will not just provide an abundant supply of labor but that rising domestic consumption should help the nation tide over any external shocks.

Most populated cities

New Delhi is the most populated city in India with 30 million inhabitants in and around NCR. Delhi could have been the 50th most populated country in the world if it were a nation. Delhi is followed by Mumbai (20 million), Kolkata (15 million) and Bengaluru (12 million).

Age group

The report shows that 25% of India's population falls within the age group of 0-14, 18% in the age group of 10-19, 26% in the age group of 10-24, 68% in the age group of 15-64, and 7% above the age of 65. Conversely, 17% of China's population falls within the age group of 0-14, 12% in the age group of 10-19, 18% in the age group of 10-24, 69% in the age group of 15-64, and 14% above the age of 65. China is doing better than India in the context of life expectancy. For instance, the life expectancy for women in China is 82, and that of men is 76, while for India, it is 74 and 71, respectively.

According to the report, India's demographic diversity among states provides unique opportunities to reap the benefits of demographic dividends. The different states are in various stages of demographic transition, and an aging population in southern India can meet its labor demands from the greater proportion of the youthful population in the northern and eastern parts of the country through favorable policies on inter-state migration.

It is worth noting that India's demographic strength is much more significant than China's, according to Huang Wenzheng, a Chinese demography expert. Although India's population growth rate has been declining since 1980, India has twice as many new babies as China, with a total fertility rate twice that of China. This factor means that India's population will be much more substantial than China's in the long run.

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China's population, which peaked at 1.42 billion in 2021, is gradually declining. In 2022, China's population decreased by 850,000 people, the first decline since 1961. Although Beijing abolished the one-child policy and then allowed up to three children, the number of births did not increase as expected due to rising costs of living, childcare, and education.

The report calls for a radical rethink of how population numbers are framed. The UNFPA urges politicians and the media to abandon overblown narratives about population booms and busts. Instead of asking how fast people are reproducing, leaders should ask whether individuals, especially women, can make their own reproductive choices freely. The UNFPA's executive director, Natalia Kanem, states that women's bodies should not be held captive to population targets.