Brokerages and analysts are pinning their hopes on Union Budget to deliver income tax sops to help reduce pain induced by the government‘s demonetisation drive.
Commenting on emerging markets and India‘s demonetisation drive, Wood said that demonetisation will be negative for equities in short term, adding that the move is a positive for bond and currency markets. Besides, demonetisation will lead to increase in deposits in banks, Wood said.
India does not need a devaluation of rupee for now, says Rajeev Malik, senior economist at CLSA. At this point currency devaluation could be a costly affair. It may spook investors and may impact capital flows.
On the currency front, it is still more of a dollar story over the next 12-months and rupee will depreciate gradually with the dollar strengthening, says Rajeev Malik, Senior Economist at CLSA.
We expect an extended pause rather than interpreting the RBI's guidance that policy rates have peaked, says Rajeev Malik, CLSA.
The nasty surprise was on CPI inflation, which jumped to 11.2 percent YoY in Nov. The increase was led by a spike in food inflation which topped 14.7 percent YoY. This raises the probability of the RBI raising rates again by 25 bps at the December 18 policy meeting, says Rajeev Malik of CLSA.
November inflation data will be the final input in deciding whether RBI raises interest rates in December or early next year, says Rajeev Malik of CLSA.
RBI will have to tighten policy to ensure attractive inflation-adjusted returns to depositors, says Rajeev Malik, CLSA.
Indian policy makers and investors are underestimating the pressure on the currency and local interest rates from global liquidity tightening, says Rajeev Malik, CLSA.
“The pleasant current wave of global risk-on doesn‘t change the hard reality of the uncomfortably high inflation for the RBI,†Rajeev Malik wrote in a note to clients this morning.
The increased global risk-on will be unequivocally positive for rupee, equities and bonds, says Rajeev Malik, CLSA.
Continued OMO purchases would act as a cap in long bond yields, says Ramanathan K, CIO, ING Investment Mgmt.
On Monday the Indian rupee opened higher by 41 paise at 60.47 per dollar versus 60.88 Thursday. "RBI has announced issuance of short-term paper to mop up liquidity in order to stabilise the rupee. The rupee will have a marginal positive reaction, but other asset classes such as bonds and equities will likely be weaker, says Rajeev Malik, CLSA.
RBI has announced issuance of short-term paper to mop up liquidity in order to stabilise the rupee, says Rajeev Malik, CLSA.
Indian markets have been resilient on the back of global liquidity conditions, so long-term investors may still find the ongoing correction attractive, says Rajeev Malik of CLSA.
The Indian rupee opened higher by 37 paise at 59.39 per dollar versus 59.76 yesterday. "RBI is more likely to prefer sucking out liquidity via bond issuance to ensure that interbank rates remain well above the repo rate, says Rajeev Malik of CLSA.
Tactically, the RBI is more likely to prefer sucking out liquidity via bond issuance to ensure that interbank rates remain well above the repo rate, says Rajeev Malik, CLSA.
The RBI is not wedded to managing the rupee on the basis of real effective exchange rate (REER). It has a hands-off approach, and INR can see a severe fall in FY14.
Volatility aside, more nominal depreciation lies in store for Asian currencies, says Rajeev Malik, CLSA.
The rupee could break above 60/USD in early 2014 and possibly depreciate to 62-65/USD. Rajeev Malik of CLSA expects the rupee to depreciate further, but the trajectory won't be a straight line.
The rupee is likely to continue to adjust to lower level. The market is obsessed about current account deficit, while the balance of payment (BoP) is also a concern, says Rajeev Malik of CLSA.
Rajeev Malik of CLSA says the RBI policy schedule later in the day is likely to maintain a status quo today and the apex bank won't go for any rate cut until July, that too if rupee stabilises.
Rajeev Malik of CLSA says the rupee will eventually weaken to cross the 60/USD mark in a sustained manner. "Admittedly, this is playing out sooner than we expected."
In line with consensus, Rajeev Malik, Senior Economist, CLSA also expects the Reserve bank of India (RBI) to oblige the market with a 25 basis points repo rate cut today.
RBI is poised to cut the Repo Rate by 25 bps to 7.25% next week. It will likely forecast WPI inflation of 6% for FY14-end, says Rajeev Malik, CLSA.